Economy

The world is not yet in global stagnation in the strict sense, but is evolving in a weaker, more fragile and more shock-prone growth regime. The conflict in the Middle East, the tension around the Strait of Ormuz and the rise of oil rekindle the risk of a dangerous mixture between soft growth and inflation. From France to the United States, from the Gulf to Lebanon, the challenge is no longer just growth, but its quality, strength and ability to withstand a sustainable energy shock.

In 2025, the Lebanese economy remained marked by strong imbalances. The trade deficit reached $17.44 billion, while inflation slowed to 14.6%. Despite a surplus in the balance of payments and the resumption of air traffic, bank deposits, credit and the stock exchange were declining.

Lebanon has won six places in the World Bank's 2026 global ranking on women's economic rights, but its score of 46.8 out of 100 for the legal pillar remains well below the world average. The country appears particularly weak on support frameworks and on the effective application of the rules. This gap between written law, institutions and economic reality limits women's autonomy and hinders productive potential.

The regional oil shock threatens Beirut directly. The war around Iran and tensions in Ormuz increase fuel, diesel, transport and electricity in an already fragile Lebanon. For households, businesses and services, expensive energy becomes another form of war against everyday and urban life.