Economy

Moodys keeps Lebanon under strong financial pressure. The Agency estimates that rapid IMF assistance of up to $1 billion would not change sovereign note C without debt restructuring or a comprehensive stabilization programme. War, the decline in tourism, massive displacement and the pressure on the balance of payments aggravate a crisis whose causes remain primarily institutional and political.

The YRO Cycle Index analyses S&P 500 as an advanced financial cycle, between chance, trend and maturity. By combining liquidity, real rates, valuations and investor behaviour, it sheds light on the excess signals, the high risks and the current market position in contemporary American financial history in the long term.

The Lebanese authorities are relaunching René-Muawad airport in the north, but the contracts, the companies selected and the viability of the project raise public questions.

An International Monetary Fund document on the independence of the central banks puts the Bank of Lebanon at the heart of the economic crisis. The IMF links financial engineering operations, maintaining an overvalued exchange rate, losses of reserves and the banking collapse of 2019 to an insufficiently protected monetary framework. For Lebanon, reform is not limited to a technical issue: it involves the budget, banks, governance and public transparency.

An IMF technical report on Lebanon describes systemic corruption through public finances, justice, the Bank of Lebanon, public procurement, electricity and banking supervision. The document does not cover individual cases, but structural flaws that maintain opacity and impunity. It calls for the implementation of judicial reform, the review of budgetary management, the supervision of public enterprises and the strengthening of the transparency of contracts.

The Jounieh-Larnaca ferry starts on June 9 with three weekly departures, tickets starting at $95 and connections to Syria and Turkey.

Syria is seeking donations from the World Bank to re-launch its rail and become a corridor between Turkey, Jordan and the Gulf.

The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz exposes the flaws in the Lebanese economy. The country imports fuel, some of its food, medicines and many essential inputs, while its banking system remains paralysed. The increase in freight, insurance and energy can therefore quickly reach households. Bank circulars cushion part of the shock, but also prolong an unresolved crisis.

The Lebanese economy is facing another major shock. Finance Minister Yassine Jaber estimates that the war could lead to a 7-10% contraction in 2026 and a direct and indirect bill of $20 billion. This crisis threatens a fragile recovery, weighs on the budget, weakens internally displaced persons, reduces public revenues and complicates discussions with international donors.

The Bank of Lebanon is preparing new banknotes of 500,000, one million, two million and five million pounds. The transaction can alleviate cash payments and reduce cash handling costs. But it raises a deeper question: how can we restore confidence in the Lebanese pound while the political, banking and administrative leaders associated with the collapse remain largely present, without clear accountability or complete banking reform?

Lebanese tourism is approaching Eid Al Adha in a climate dominated by conflict, the strikes to the south, the security negotiations expected in Washington and the caution of travellers. Low bookings do not only reflect a weak economic situation. They reflect an immediate crisis of confidence, affecting hotels, restaurants, agencies, airlines, car rental companies and businesses dependent on diaspora returns.

The reopening of Arab markets to Lebanese products cannot be reduced to a diplomatic promise. The figures show a country still highly dependent on imports, exposed to a massive trade deficit and penalized by a deep crisis of confidence. The problem goes beyond the Gulf market. It concerns the responsibility of the actors still in place, banking reform, public controls, energy and the state's ability to prove that the rules have really changed.

Artificial intelligence is entering a critical phase where real economic transformation and financial euphoria merge. The BRJ Global Cycle Index places the IA sector between 78 and 88, signaling an advanced institutional euphoria, with solid profits but risky valuations and almost perfect growth scenarios already integrated into markets.

The cash economy in Lebanon remains one of the most visible symptoms of the banking crisis and the loss of confidence. The setting of fees and fees by a formal financial institution opens a test of control, but success will depend on the actual application of the rules. Between cash payments, monopolies, speculation and incomplete banking reform, the country must make formal channels safer and more useful.