Economy

Container activity at the port of Beirut reached 471,637 TEUs in the first half of 2026, an increase of 16.27% over one year. Transshipment is the main driver of this increase, with 129,319 TEUs and a 46.78 % increase. Loading and unloading operations increased by 7.81%. The month of June, however, shows a 2.53% decline from May, while Lebanese exports to Saudi Arabia are beginning to recover.

The boards of some Lebanese banks may lose their powers as part of the restructuring required by the IMF. Behind this evolution is a central question since 2019: Where have the assets corresponding to the blocked deposits gone? An independent procedure could open the books of institutions, examine transfers and transactions with related parties, search for recoverable assets and only then determine the losses to be distributed.

The draft budget 2027 revives in Lebanon the debate on the taxation of foreign digital services, with Netflix, ChatGPT and other online subscriptions in the viewfinder. As the government seeks new revenues, critics denounce the increasing burden of indirect taxes and recall the WhatsApp tax that sparked the October 2019 uprising. Another question arises: do the additional revenues actually fund the promised public wages or do they indirectly contribute to the mechanisms for repayment of bank deposits?

Artificial intelligence is now one of the most powerful drivers of equity markets. But when a theme becomes both a technological revolution, an engine of growth and an object of speculation, an essential question arises: at what price is this growth already integrated into the prices? It is precisely the object of this [...]

Lebanon is expected to experience an economic contraction of 6.4 per cent in 2026, but war is not enough to explain the depth of the shock. The restrictive monetary policy, the increase in several levies and, above all, the persistent weakness of bank credit simultaneously reduces consumption and investment. For importers, the lack of bank financing also increases the need for cash and ultimately increases the price of goods. With an inflation forecast of 17.5%, the country is approaching a real stagflation situation.

A new oil corridor linking Iraq to the Mediterranean via Turkey, Syria and Lebanon could carry up to two million barrels a day, according to reports on 25 August. The idea takes on a strategic dimension with the crisis in the Strait of Ormuz. Several elements are already being studied by Baghdad with a consortium comprising Chevron, but no published agreement yet confirms the construction of an integrated corridor to Lebanon. Financing, route, security and transit agreements remain to be established.

The electricity of Lebanon had built its 2026 budget on a diesel oil around $680 per tonne. The regional war disrupted this hypothesis, with a market approaching $1,500. The shock strikes an establishment already penalized by public unpaid payments, non-technical losses and difficult collection. After reaching seven to nine hours of current per day in February, the supply contracted heavily. Minister Joe Saddi is now demanding the payment of public debts while the government is refusing, for the time being, an increase in tariffs.

The World Bank forecasts a 6.4% contraction in the Lebanese economy in 2026, following a 4.2% technical rebound in 2025. The war directly explains this relapse by striking tourism, consumption and supply chains. But its impact is amplified by the imbalances that have not been resolved since 2019: banks in difficulty, deposits still subject to restrictions, unrestructured sovereign debt, accumulated losses in the financial system and bank credit largely paralyzed.

After almost six months of war without diplomatic breakthrough, the Trump administration is preparing a new economic offensive against Iran. Washington promises sanctions of exceptional magnitude and now warns countries that would continue to provide economic opportunities in Tehran. This strategy puts American allies in the face of difficult choices, but its main test is in China, which absorbs the bulk of Iranian oil exports and rejects the principle of unilateral US sanctions.

Lebanese banking reform is entering its most sensitive phase: the actual distribution of losses accumulated since the collapse of 2019. Behind deposit repayment mechanisms are fundamental economic choices on the responsibility of banks, their shareholders, the Bank of Lebanon and the State. If Parliament overly protects the owners of the establishments while reducing the rights of depositors, the new system could also open a battle before the Constitutional Council.

The International Monetary Fund congratulated Finance Minister Yassine Jaber after the adoption of the amendments to the Bank Restructuring Act, described as "very good step" by Ernesto Ramirez Rigo. This is an improvement after several months of IMF criticism of the independence of resolution authorities, their governance and the protection of depositors. However, it does not resolve the main dispute: the recognition and sharing of accumulated losses between the State, the Bank of Lebanon, banks, their shareholders and depositors.

The Ormuz crisis now exceeds the only question of oil prices and volumes. Iraq is accelerating its search for roads to the Mediterranean, the United Arab Emirates suspends its economic relations with Iran and shipowners directly pass the military risk in their tariffs. The Gulf States must also arbitrate between their security alliance with Washington and the risk of Iranian retaliation. If the crisis continues, investments in pipelines and terminals that can bypass Ormuz could change regional energy geography in a sustainable manner.

The René-Moawad airport in Qlayaat, Akkar, aims for a first partial operation at the end of October 2026. Sky Lounge Services announces that it has increased the terminal area from 2,000 to 4,700 square metres and completed its main structure. Interior and electromechanical work must continue as preparations for the runway begin. The full opening date is not yet announced and the first airlines and destinations remain to be specified.

An Emirati economic delegation of 67 leaders and businessmen is expected in Beirut on 26 and 27 August, led by Foreign Trade Minister Thani ben Ahmed Al Zeyoudi. The visit marks a new stage in the rapprochement between Lebanon and the United Arab Emirates. It is an important signal for the Lebanese private sector, without guaranteeing yet a massive return on investment. Security, banking reform and institutional stability will remain the main criteria before any sustainable capital commitment.