Economy

The new fuel grid in Lebanon draws a very uneven movement. Gasoline 95 and 98 octane increased by 10,000 pounds, while fuel oil jumped by 53,000 pounds. Gas is down 20,000 pounds. Behind this tariff update, the most important signal is diesel, a central product for generators, part of transportation and many economic activities. For households, reading becomes more complex: slight increase for mobility, limited relief on gas, increased pressure on fuel oil uses.

The passage of the US-sanctioned Rich Starry and the approach of the Washington-targeted Murlikishan put the Ormuz Strait at the centre of a new credibility test. The U.S. system officially targets ships linked to Iranian ports, without fully closing transit to non-Iranian ports. This legal and military nuance already weighs on insurers, shipowners and energy markets in a corridor where a decisive share of world oil and LNG is still passing through.

The OPEC+ announced a production increase of 206 000 barrels per day as early as May 2026, but the oil shock caused by the war around Iran and tensions in the Strait of Ormuz limited its real reach. More than a massive contribution, this decision appears to be a strategic signal to global markets.

Netanyahu wants to transport oil and gas from Arab countries through Israeli ports after the war, but the project faces serious obstacles.

Strait of Ormuz: Asian markets falling and oil above $100 after Donald Trump's threats against Iran.

The conflict in the Middle East could already cost Arab economies $186 billion, according to UNDP. Regional GDP, employment, poverty and human development are at risk. The Gulf and the Levant appear to be the most exposed to this shock, which already exceeds an entire year of growth in the region.

The current conflict in Lebanon is causing another major economic shock. The available projections suggest a contraction of real GDP from 12% to 16% in 2026, combined with the collapse of tourism, damage to infrastructure, pressure on agriculture, rising energy bills and declining demand. Behind this recession, it is the entire economy of services, trade and production that is being weakened, in a country already experiencing six years of crisis.

Fuel increases in Lebanon: petrol, fuel oil and gas are rising, on a world-wide oil base in yoyo after Trump said.

Trump postponed the strikes against Iran for five days, against the background of Iranian threats against the desalination of the Gulf and debate on international law.

The energy crisis created by the war in the Middle East threatens to cause a world shock worse than the oil crises of the 1970s.

The war already caused its first economic turmoil: rising oil, more expensive fertilizers, disturbed freight and risks on semiconductors. For Lebanon, which is a fragile and dollar-dependent importer, this shock threatens the prices of bread, electricity, medicines and the whole economy under stress.

The world is not yet in global stagnation in the strict sense, but is evolving in a weaker, more fragile and more shock-prone growth regime. The conflict in the Middle East, the tension around the Strait of Ormuz and the rise of oil rekindle the risk of a dangerous mixture between soft growth and inflation. From France to the United States, from the Gulf to Lebanon, the challenge is no longer just growth, but its quality, strength and ability to withstand a sustainable energy shock.

In 2025, the Lebanese economy remained marked by strong imbalances. The trade deficit reached $17.44 billion, while inflation slowed to 14.6%. Despite a surplus in the balance of payments and the resumption of air traffic, bank deposits, credit and the stock exchange were declining.

Lebanon has won six places in the World Bank's 2026 global ranking on women's economic rights, but its score of 46.8 out of 100 for the legal pillar remains well below the world average. The country appears particularly weak on support frameworks and on the effective application of the rules. This gap between written law, institutions and economic reality limits women's autonomy and hinders productive potential.