Economy

The crisis in the Strait of Ormuz is driving Iraq to seek export routes to the Mediterranean and restoring strategic value to Tripoli's oil facilities. Lebanon is already preparing a first phase based on land transport, storage and re-export of Iraqi products. But becoming a regional energy door again would require much more: regular volumes, investments in northern facilities, a secure corridor across Syria and, in the longer term, a connection to the new infrastructure studied between Iraq and the Mediterranean.

Improving the financial indicators will not be enough to restore the Lebanese economy to a sustainable footing. Even with bank restructuring and a rise in sovereign bonds, companies still face electricity costs, failing infrastructure, lack of credit, difficulties in accessing external markets and security risks. Five indicators will determine whether financial stabilization is actually beginning to turn into a productive recovery for businesses and households.

After seven years of crisis, Lebanon is finally reforming bank restructuring. Shareholders, managers, banks, Bank of Lebanon and depositors will now be subject to a loss hierarchy. But the decisive question remains: who will really bear the tens of billions of dollars that have disappeared since the collapse of 2019?

On 12 August 2026, the Lebanese Parliament adopted amendments to the Law on Banking Restructuring, bringing the country closer to a reform called for since the financial collapse of 2019. The text determines which banks can be recapitalised, merged or liquidated. However, it does not solve the main problem: the sharing of more than $70 billion in losses. The IMF requires a clear hierarchy and protection of small depositors, while banks insist on State and Bank of Lebanon responsibility. However, their position cannot erase their own management and risk exposure choices.

Lebanese government revenues increased from approximately $3.9 billion in 2024 to $6.19 billion in 2025, while customs revenues and primary surplus increased sharply. This improvement does not mean, however, that the State has regained a real financial ease. New wage spending, tax carry-overs, low investment and unrestructured debt absorb or mask some of the apparent margins. The real test will begin with the standardization of public spending.

The Lebanese Government is preparing for the passage of Iraqi crude oil and petroleum products through the national territory. In the first phase, Lebanon should serve as a storage and re-export centre, with transport by tankers. Roads, border crossings and oil installations must be adapted. Behind this operation is a broader issue: to put Tripoli on the new energy routes between Iraq and the Mediterranean, while Baghdad is seeking to reduce its dependence on exports by the Gulf.

China has established itself as Lebanon's leading supplier and could already be at the forefront of its individual trading partners. Trade reached $2.8 billion in 2025, according to Chinese Ambassador Chen Chuandong, and then $1.29 billion in the first half of 2026 despite the regional war. Behind this spectacular increase, however, is a strong imbalance: Lebanon buys a lot from China but sells little to it. The next challenge is to attract Chinese investment and further open the Chinese market to Lebanese companies.

China has established itself as Lebanon's leading supplier and could already be at the forefront of its individual trading partners. Trade reached $2.8 billion in 2025, according to Chinese Ambassador Chen Chuandong, and then $1.29 billion in the first half of 2026 despite the regional war. Behind this spectacular increase, however, is a strong imbalance: Lebanon buys a lot from China but sells little to it. The next challenge is to attract Chinese investment and further open the Chinese market to Lebanese companies.

يح Whilst المر Whilst اللروبي للنحاهر في لبنان من وه的ا من لعدال

Alfa activated 5G in several areas of Beirut and its suburbs, before an announced expansion to 75 additional stations. This launch marks a first step for a long-standing Lebanon away from the modernization of mobile networks. However, the success of the project will depend on the quality of fibre optics, electricity, regulation, prices and the ability of the authorities to extend coverage beyond the main urban areas.

The Parliamentary Finance Committee finalized the review of the bank restructuring bill before a final meeting scheduled for Monday. For its president, Ibrahim Kanaan, this reform cannot restore confidence without a law guaranteeing the return of deposits. Financing these repayments and the effective implementation of future reforms now appear to be the main challenges of Lebanese economic recovery.

The Parliamentary Finance Committee finalized the review of the bank restructuring bill before a final meeting scheduled for Monday. For its president, Ibrahim Kanaan, this reform cannot restore confidence without a law guaranteeing the return of deposits. Financing these repayments and the effective implementation of future reforms now appear to be the main challenges of Lebanese economic recovery.

The Lebanese Council of Ministers requested the signing of the contract allowing the country to join the Medusa submarine cable, with the participation of Ogero. The Department of Finance must provide full funding for the project. This new link could diversify Lebanon's international roads and strengthen the network's resilience. However, its cost, capacity, timing and landing point have not yet been communicated.

The Lebanese Council of Ministers approved the allocation of parcel 1383 in the Medawar-Port area to the extension of the port of Beirut. This decision paves the way for a new land and logistics project, but its content remains largely undetermined. The government still needs to clarify the use of the land, the cost of work, the funding, the timing and the governance model chosen for this strategic infrastructure.