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Donald Trump assures that the war with Iran is "almost over" and evokes a resumption of negotiations this week in Pakistan. Yet behind this spectacular statement, the facts tell another story. The ceasefire remains fragile, the American blockade of Iranian ports is intensifying, the Strait of Ormuz remains largely paralysed and the nuclear issue continues to block any agreement. Between political communication, maximum pressure and duress diplomacy, de-escalation remains possible without yet being acquired.

The war against Iran was to put Benjamin Netanyahu back at the centre of the Israeli political game. Above all, she revealed the limits of her strategy. The latest polls show a weakened prime minister, unable to convert the hardness of opinion into a stable majority. Between the disputed ceasefire, the Lebanese front still active, the high economic cost and the resumption of the trial for corruption, the October legislative campaign promises less as a security plebiscite than as a credibility test on its ability to govern a country under constant tension.

On a visit to Beijing, Sergei Lavrov assured that Russia could compensate part of the energy deficit caused to China by the Middle East war. This promise comes at a time when Moscow is seeking to consolidate its pivot towards Asia, while Xi Jinping is preparing a new first-rate diplomatic sequence, with Donald Trump expected mid-May and Vladimir Putin announced in the first semester. Behind the rhetoric of friendship, energy appears to be the true heart of the balance of power between Beijing and Moscow.

Israel and Lebanon initiated their first direct negotiations in Washington since 1993, under exclusive American mediation. Despite the absence of a truce, the discussions concerned the southern border, the implementation of resolution 1701 and the future of Hezbollah, in a context of war, displacement and acute humanitarian crisis.

The acquisition of the Fattal group by CMA CGM marks a new step in the transformation of Rodolphe Saadé's group into an integrated player in the supply chain. Beyond maritime transport and traditional logistics, the operation opens up access to a regional distribution platform in eight countries. It strengthens its anchoring in the MENA region, brings the final markets group together and gives Lebanon an explicit place in a long-term industrial strategy.

Joseph Aoun placed the Israeli withdrawal at the heart of the Lebanese position before the opening of the discussions in Washington. For Beirut, no lasting stability is possible as long as Israel occupies territories in southern Lebanon. The President wants the Lebanese Armed Forces to redeploy to the recognized borders and become solely responsible for the security of the area. This line collides directly with the Israeli agenda, focusing on Hezbollah, military pressure and a future security architecture favourable to Israel.

In Washington, Israel is not negotiating a simple ceasefire with Lebanon. His public agenda aims at the disarmament of Hezbollah, refuses any prior truce and already opens a debate on the place of the movement in the Lebanese state. The discussion now extends far beyond the southern border today.

Bint Jbeil is at the heart of a military and symbolic battle. Israel shows clear signs of progress, with encirclement, visible presence in the city and taking a site highly charged in memory. However, the fighting does not seem to be closed: Israeli casualties are still reported, Lebanese sources indicate continued active resistance and access to certain areas remains impossible. Beyond this city, it is the whole South Lebanon that remains under strike and pressure.

The announcement by Giorgia Meloni to suspend the automatic renewal of the defence agreement between Italy and Israel marks a more important diplomatic turning point than it seems. Israel assures that this decision will have no effect on its security, minimizing the operational scope of the text. Yet Rome's gesture reflects a real political deterioration, fuelled by the war in Lebanon, the incident involving an Italian UNIFIL convoy and the rising pressure in Europe on military relations with Israel.

The new fuel grid in Lebanon draws a very uneven movement. Gasoline 95 and 98 octane increased by 10,000 pounds, while fuel oil jumped by 53,000 pounds. Gas is down 20,000 pounds. Behind this tariff update, the most important signal is diesel, a central product for generators, part of transportation and many economic activities. For households, reading becomes more complex: slight increase for mobility, limited relief on gas, increased pressure on fuel oil uses.

Washington displays a recapture of the Strait of Ormuz, but public events tell a more fragile story. The United States has launched a security mission and may open a temporary passage under protection, with drones and escorts. On the other hand, they have withdrawn their former mining dredgers from Bahrain, rely on LCS whose transition remains incomplete and are gradually emerging from the logic of specialized helicopters. The real issue is therefore not the entry of two destroyers into the Strait, but the gap between a demonstration of presence and the real ability to demine the entire gully in a sustainable manner.

Lebanon is entering a rare diplomatic sequence, but deeply unbalanced. In Washington, a direct channel opens between Lebanese and Israeli representatives under American mediation. Yet, the strikes continue in the South and in the Bekaa, while Israel already places the security of its northern border and the disarmament of Hezbollah at the heart of the agenda. Beirut is trying to get a pre-ceasefire. Hezbollah rejects any negotiations conducted while the war continues to establish the balance of power.

The crisis around Iran and Ormuz reveals a new regional situation: Beijing is gaining ground in the Middle East without replacing Washington militarily. China takes advantage of the flaws of the American system, maintains ties with Tehran and the Gulf, and transforms every tension into a major diplomatic, energy and commercial lever.

France does not participate in the new negotiating format opened in Washington between the United States, Israel and Lebanon. This absence contributes to the weakness of Lebanese diplomacy and marks a major break. However, Paris had co-sponsored the 2024 ceasefire, sat in its monitoring mechanism and attempted, until March, to defend a gradual exit from crisis. By accepting a framework without France, Beirut lost a Western diplomatic counterweight at a time when Israel imposed a military pressure discussion and UNIFIL was entering a scheduled phase of withdrawal.