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The war in Ukraine is entering a phase where the front moves less quickly, while economic pressure against Moscow is intensifying. Kyiv seeks to strengthen its position before any negotiations can take place, without formally giving up its occupied territories. Westerners now target Russian revenues, banks, maritime services and the ghost fleet. A lasting ceasefire will depend as much on security assurances as on the maintenance of sanctions.

The Lebanese Council of Ministers discussed the latest political, security and humanitarian developments, pending the effective implementation of the ceasefire announced between the United States and Iran. Nawaf Salam called for continued efforts to secure Israeli withdrawal, release of prisoners and reconstruction. The government also slowed down on official reviews, while approving several administrative, financial and public files, including the fund audit, Beirut Airport, Central Inspectorate, pricing policy and waste management.

The announced cancellation of Itamar Ben-Gvir's trip to the United States, due to difficulties in obtaining a visa according to the Israeli press, comes in a moment of tension between Washington and Tel Aviv. The agreement between the United States and Iran, which includes Lebanon, provokes open opposition from several Israeli ministers. The Ben-Gvir case thus becomes the symptom of a damaged honeymoon, without formal strategic rupture.

The Syrian displaced in Lebanon are at the heart of a crisis enlarged by the war of 2026. In addition to the old tensions over municipalities, schools, care and employment, the massive displacement of Lebanese families from the South is now added. The return to Syria is progressing, but it remains limited by security, documents, housing and the economy. Without a clear bilateral framework between Beirut and Damascus, the crisis may continue.

Lebanon can repair some emergencies without complete banking reform, but it cannot rebuild sustainably without a credible financial system. Locked deposits, lack of credit, defaulting state, FATF's grey list and donor distrust are all the same. International aid can finance targeted projects, but national reconstruction requires sound banks, a loss settlement law and a clear hierarchy of responsibilities.

Lebanese banks have been facing increasing compliance pressure since Lebanon's inclusion in the FATF grey list. The contract between the Bank of Lebanon and K2 Integrity formally aims to strengthen the fight against money laundering, fraud and the financing of terrorism. But the case raises concerns about cost, the real role of the US firm, access to data and the risk of surveillance perceived as financial supervision.

In Lebanon, the sound of drones became a war without immediate explosion. Permanent buzzing sets up a state of alert, disturbs sleep, weakens children, exhausts parents, workers and rescue workers. This sound monitoring transforms the daily into a possible hit. Even in the event of a ceasefire, the cessation of bombings will not be enough if overflights continue to keep civilians in fear.

In Palestine, international law is pervasive in speeches, resolutions and judicial decisions. It condemns occupation, settlements, forced transfers and arbitrary detention. Yet its concrete effect remains limited. Palestinian prisoners remained numerous, settlements were progressing and sanctions remained targeted. The gap between legal norms and political constraints feeds into a lasting crisis of credibility of international institutions.

Lebanese tourism approaches the summer with reservations in decline, hotel cancellations, deferred tickets and suspended events. The war broke a season that had to support foreign exchange, employment and consumption. The diaspora remains a base, but is more hesitant about air and security risks. Foreign visitors turn away faster. A lasting ceasefire can limit losses without ensuring a real recovery.

The reconstruction of Lebanon will not only depend on an international conference. The needs are immense: housing, agriculture, roads, hospitals, schools, heritage and basic networks. But donors will set their conditions: banking reform, transparency, border control, security in the South and guarantees against hijacking. For Beirut, the challenge is to turn promises into methods, before reconstruction is captured by parties, parallel networks or external interests.

Lebanese diplomacy must find a common line while the Iran-USA agreement places the country at the centre of a regional game that it does not control. The Presidency, the Government, Parliament and Hezbollah share some demands, such as the Israeli withdrawal and the cessation of strikes. But the divides remain deep on weapons, Iran and negotiations with Israel. The withdrawal of the Iranian ambassador's accreditation also deprived Beirut of a useful official channel with Tehran.

The United States-Iran regional agreement is the product of multi-channel diplomacy. Qatar has reopened a door in Tehran, Pakistan has carried the political announcement and Switzerland must offer the signature framework. This indirect method helped to circumvent the lack of trust between Washington and Tehran, reopen Ormuz and push back the most difficult cases. However, Lebanon remains the potential point of rupture.

The Lebanese army calls on the displaced inhabitants of the South not to return too quickly to the border villages, despite information about a regional ceasefire. The communiqué issued by the leadership emphasizes the risks of Israeli violations, aggression and unexploded ordnance. This puts civil security at the heart of the transition from diplomatic announcement to reality on the ground.

The American guarantees promised in the agreement between Washington and Tehran will be judged in Lebanon on their ability to contain Israel. Tehran claims that the Lebanese front must be included in the regional ceasefire, while Benjamin Netanyahu refuses to lose his freedom of action against Hezbollah. For Beirut, American credibility will depend on concrete actions: stopping strikes, Israeli withdrawal, the role of the Finul and the safe return of the people of the South.