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On the morning of 16 March 2026, Lebanon faced an intensification of the strikes, an increasingly heavy human balance and still uncertain diplomatic negotiations. Between military operations in the south, mass displacement and humanitarian emergency, the situation remains extremely volatile throughout Lebanese territory.

France has drafted a proposal to end the war in Lebanon, according to Axios. The text, considered by the United States and Israel, would provide for an unprecedented step: the recognition of Israel by the Lebanese government. This initiative comes as Israel prepares a land offensive south of the Litani and Lebanon goes through one of the most deadly phases of the recent war.

In Lebanon, war begins with the daily economy. Local businesses, displaced families and essential services suffer from the immediate effects of escalation. With more than 800,000 displaced persons and saturated services, the crisis not only destroys infrastructure: it breaks the ordinary economic circuits that hold society.

The world is not yet in global stagnation in the strict sense, but is evolving in a weaker, more fragile and more shock-prone growth regime. The conflict in the Middle East, the tension around the Strait of Ormuz and the rise of oil rekindle the risk of a dangerous mixture between soft growth and inflation. From France to the United States, from the Gulf to Lebanon, the challenge is no longer just growth, but its quality, strength and ability to withstand a sustainable energy shock.

In 2025, the Lebanese economy remained marked by strong imbalances. The trade deficit reached $17.44 billion, while inflation slowed to 14.6%. Despite a surplus in the balance of payments and the resumption of air traffic, bank deposits, credit and the stock exchange were declining.

Lebanon has won six places in the World Bank's 2026 global ranking on women's economic rights, but its score of 46.8 out of 100 for the legal pillar remains well below the world average. The country appears particularly weak on support frameworks and on the effective application of the rules. This gap between written law, institutions and economic reality limits women's autonomy and hinders productive potential.

In Lebanon at war, detainees and families become the forgotten of an emergency saturated by strikes and diplomacy. Between institutional silence, endless expectation and the recurring issue of the general amnesty, their fate reveals the fragility of the state, justice and the right to a clear response.

In Lebanon, the war feeds a parallel economy of scams, abusive housing and false intermediaries. With more than 500,000 internally displaced persons and 45 per cent inflation, the crisis is turning the emergency into a market and exposing the most vulnerable to predation that worsens their survival.

In Lebanon, 826 people were killed and 2,009 injured since 2 March, with 31 caregivers killed and 5 hospitals closed.

With over 800,000 displaced, Lebanon is entering a new geography of emergency. The South is emptying, Beirut and Mount Lebanon are saturating and collective centres are increasing, transforming the territory into a space of forced circulation and lasting humanitarian crisis.

The regional oil shock threatens Beirut directly. The war around Iran and tensions in Ormuz increase fuel, diesel, transport and electricity in an already fragile Lebanon. For households, businesses and services, expensive energy becomes another form of war against everyday and urban life.

The escalation between Israel and Iran extends to the entire Arab world, from Lebanon to the Gulf. Between pressure on the Strait of Ormuz, violence in the West Bank, threats to the Gulf monarchies and blocked mediation, the regional crisis takes on a major and lasting military, diplomatic and energy dimension.

In Beirut, the expansion of strikes and the massive influx of internally displaced persons fuel neighbourhood filtering, suspicion and logic of local protection. The Lebanese capital is facing a growing risk of security fragmentation, without any change in formal militia order, where fear is re-establishing access to the common city.