Oceans and glaciers focus on a new World Meteorological Organization (WMO) alert. His report presented Monday, November 9, at COP31 in Antalya describes persistent sea heat, record sea levels and declining water supplies. These developments expose littorals, agriculture and health services to risks beyond the warmest years.
Oceans and Glaciers: Heat Simmers
The provisional observations available until July point 2026 towards a tenth consecutive year of record ocean heat. The average sea level also reaches its maximum in the satellite series started in 1993. The report combines this increase with the warming of dilated waters and the melting of continental ice.
These indicators measure different phenomena. Surface temperature does not summarize deep stored heat. The ocean absorbs about 90% of the excess heat from the climate system. This accumulation contributes to changes in marine ecosystems and to certain storms.
Ice loss and less water stored on land
The latest available annual balance sheet for glaciers is 2025: more than 400 billion tons of lost ice. All 19 glacial regions followed suffered losses for the fourth consecutive year.
Land water reserves include water tables, soils, streams, reservoirs, snow and glaciers. By 2025, 42 per cent of the estimated global area was below normal storage, compared to a reference average of 25 per cent. This figure does not mean that 42% of the world’s water has disappeared.
El Niño increases risk until 2027
The report is based, according to the indicators, on observations up to September. It does not yet cover all the effects of the recent strengthening of El Niño. It redistributes ocean heat and changes rains. Its consequences can be prolonged in 2027.
The American diagnosis of October 8 provides a complementary benchmark. The Climate Prediction Center estimated that more than 83% was likely to have a strong to very strong episode until the quarter of January-March 2027. He was already observing a shift of rains towards the central and eastern Pacific, with a reduced convection on Indonesia. The expected regional effects remain probabilities, not the guarantee of a disaster in each country.
Health is already preparing its answer
The World Health Organization published on 2 November a plan covering October 2026 to September 2027. It organizes its Level 3 response around surveillance, prevention, care and coordination. Its initial funding requirement is approximately $35 million for six months.
The scheme favours anticipation and maintenance of essential services. It provides for health surveillance that integrates climate information, logistical preparedness and protection of vulnerable populations. It must be adapted to changing risks, rather than applied uniformly everywhere.
A provisional assessment, several measurement schedules
The average temperature from January to September 2026 is about 1.47 °C above 1850-1900. This nine-month average is not yet the annual result. The 2025 values for glaciers and freshwater are not only measurements of autumn 2026.
The final global climate report of 2026 is expected in March 2027. The next US monthly diagnosis on El Niño is due to be released on November 12.
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