American Jewish voters largely renewed their support for the Democrats in the mid-term elections of 3 November 2026: 72 per cent said they had chosen their candidate for Congress, compared to 24 per cent for Republicans, according to a national GBAO survey for J Street. Another notable result is that 80 per cent of respondents believe that Israel’s actions in Gaza and the West Bank are increasing anti-Semitism in the United States.
Published on 5 November, these figures draw an electorate attached to the Democratic Camp while expressing strong reservations about Israeli policy. They relate to statements by voters interviewed by an institute. The 72 per cent result is therefore an estimate of the vote, not an official count of ballots by religion.
Democratic vote resists tensions on Israel
In the series of surveys conducted by the same institute, the Democratic share in Congress already reached 72% in 2024, and 74% in the midterms of 2022. The difference of two points with 2022 remains too small to show a significant decline alone. The result of 2026 shows no massive shift towards the Republicans.
Donald Trump remains strongly rejected: 76% of respondents disagree with his presidential action. However, this opposition should not be confused with general satisfaction with the Democrats. In the same questionnaire, the Democratic Party received 45 per cent favourable opinions and 47 per cent unfavourable opinions. Voting for a candidate can coexist with criticism of his party.
The hierarchy of concerns helps to understand this choice. Invited to select the two most important topics for their vote, 44% of respondents cited the future of democracy and 34% cited the cost of living and the economy. Anti-Semitism appears at 21%, Israel at 14%. These multiple responses do not add up as the shares of an election.
Israel therefore counts in the decision of some voters, but does not summarize their priorities. Reducing their vote to the position of the candidates on the Israeli government would eliminate the institutional and social issues that come first.
What the 80% figure covers
The question relates specifically to Israel’s actions in two territories: Gaza and the West Bank. She asked respondents whether they thought that such actions were increasing anti-Semitism in the United States. The questionnaire proposes two answers, yes or no: 80% choose the first, 20% the second. It does not offer, for this question, a category « without opinion » or degree of agreement.
The word « actions » is broader than « military operations ». The survey does not require respondents to isolate an offensive, a government decision or a specific episode. It would therefore be excessive to link this result to a single operation.
This response measures a perception of the link between Israeli policy and the climate in the United States. It does not demonstrate that Israeli actions alone explain the evolution of anti-Semitic acts. Establishing causality would require further data and a separate analysis of the facts identified.
Nor does it transfer to American Jews the responsibility for the decisions of a foreign government. Holding people responsible for these decisions because of their identity is precisely an amalgam. The poll here gathers the views of American voters, not of a political group led from Israel.
Sustained sanctions, disagreements over military aid
Criticism translates into concrete preferences. 76 per cent supported United States sanctions against settlers in the West Bank who committed violence against Palestinians. The same level of support is measured for sanctions against Israeli ministers who promote or facilitate such violence. These questions refer to specific behaviour, not all Israelis.
Support falls to 59 per cent when it comes to punishing businesses and people who help build or finance settlements in the West Bank. These differences show that respondents distinguish the proposed measures, rather than express an undifferentiated agreement with any form of pressure.
Military aid reveals a much clearer division. On the question of maintaining the $4 billion in subsidies that would allow Israel to buy US weapons, 51 per cent wished to retain them and 49 per cent wished to abolish them. With such a narrow gap, the survey describes above all a sharing of opinions.
The 80 per cent anti-Semitism cannot therefore be transformed into 80 per cent in favour of an arms embargo or a break with Israel. The questions concern different subjects and produce different majorities.
An investigation of 800 voters, with known limits
From 28 October to 3 November, 800 people declared Jewish and voted in advance or on polling day. Participants were contacted by SMS from a national register of registered voters, with initial targeting based on name or geography. They then answered on the phone or computer.
The identification as Jewish was based on the responses of the participants, including when they did not declare Judaism as a religion. The sample is therefore not limited to practitioners or members of a synagogue. Nor does it represent all the Jews living in the United States, since the survey focuses on voters.
GBAO announces a margin of error of more or less 3.5 points at a 95% confidence level for the whole sample. This indication does not exhaust the uncertainties related to recruitment, persons who do not answer or the formulation of questions. The results for small subgroups are also less accurate.
The production context also counts: J Street is a progressive, pro-Israeli, two-state Jewish organization. GBAO works in particular for Democratic candidates. This is a survey commissioned by an actor involved in the political debate, with a questionnaire and method made public.
The strongest result is that of a broad democratic preference in this sample, coupled with a very majority concern about the impact of Israeli policy. Between this concern, targeted sanctions and the financing of weapons, the answers remain nuanced. It is on these specific choices that future elected representatives will be expected, rather than on the idea of a uniform Jewish vote.
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