On the eve of the midterms of November 3, 2026, purchasing power was weighing on the Republican campaign in the United States. Donald Trump spent the last Sunday before the election in Iowa and Kansas. In these agricultural states, as elsewhere, daily expenditure and production costs test its balance sheet. The vote will appoint the elected members of Congress, not the president. However, he would say what political margin voters wanted to leave him.
On Monday 2 November, there was no result to turn economic discontent into an announced victory for the opposition. The available data describe pressure on budgets. They do not determine the participation or the final choice in each electoral district.
Midterms: purchasing power at the forefront
A national survey published on 15 October addresses this concern. Of the electors surveyed, 85% rated the economy as one of the most important issues in their vote. The cost of living is 84%. These responses indicate priorities, not intentions to vote in a specific race.
The survey was conducted from 8 to 12 October, by telephone and online, among 1,119 adults. It is based on a probabilistic panel. The margin of error reported for the entire sample is 3.9 points. This national framework prohibits direct deduction of the distribution of seats in Congress. It also does not measure any movements during the last week of the campaign.
For Republican candidates, the challenge is to defend their record in this climate. For the Democrats, denouncing too high expenditure is not enough. They still have to convince voters that their proposals can improve their situation and then get their participation.
Gasoline accelerates, supply follows another trajectory
The latest monthly statistics available before the vote are for September. Published on 14 October, they show a 3.7% increase in consumer prices over one year. The increase was 0.6% over the month, after seasonal adjustment.
| Indicator | Change in September 2026 |
|---|---|
| Consumer prices | +3.7% over one year |
| Energy | +20.4% year-on-year |
| Food | +2.5% year-on-year |
| Gasoline | +9.1 % over one month |
The monthly increase in gasoline accounts for more than half of the increase in the general index. Conversely, the food index remains stable over the month. Home-based food purchases are down 0.1 per cent, while out-of-home meals are up 0.2 per cent.
These developments do not contradict each other. Monthly stabilization does not mean that prices return to their previous level. It can coexist with an annual increase and with much heavier energy expenditures. Situations also vary according to the movement, housing and composition of the household.
Economic announcements tested against the calendar
In particular, the administration seeks to reduce agricultural costs. On 22 October, the Department of Agriculture selected eight fertilizer manufacturing projects. They represent more than $1.34 billion in proposed investments, including approximately 573 million public funding. Washington is aiming for increased American production and less dependence on foreign suppliers. However, these amounts do not constitute aid already paid to each holding. The expected effects on costs will depend on the completion of the projects and their implementation.
This difference in calendar goes through the end of the campaign. Voters judge expenses present, while some of the economic responses promise future effects. On Tuesday November 3, this assessment will meet the local realities of the election: the candidates, their opponents and the mobilization in each territory.
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