How can unemployment figures in Lebanon be read when publications approximate an estimate of around 11 per cent and the rate of 29.6 per cent in January 2022? The difference alone does not make it possible to announce a spectacular return to employment. Before calculating an improvement, the method, population and period of each measure must be identified.
The file published by Nida al-Watan on 11 November juxtaposes results from several approaches. The challenge is to put them in their frame. A household survey, a modeled series and a survey of employees who have lost their jobs answer different questions.
What the January 2022 survey measures
The Central Statistical Office and the International Labour Organization conducted a follow-up survey on the labour force in January 2022. The results raise the unemployment rate from 11.4% in 2018–2019 to 29.6%. For young people aged 15-24, it increases from 23.3% to 47.8%.
These percentages describe an observed period. They are not a November 2026 survey. The figure for young people is for those in this age group, not all young people in the country. Students who do not work and do not seek employment are not automatically unemployed.
This distinction is based on the denominator. The unemployment rate brings the unemployed, available and seeking work, to the labour force, which also includes the employed. It does not bring all adults without pay to all inhabitants.
A modeled estimate uses other tools
ILO also produces modelled series of estimates. Their objective includes international comparison and addressing gaps in observations. They combine available information with statistical procedures; A recent value does not therefore necessarily indicate that a full new survey was carried out in the country in that year.
ILO distinguishes in its tables the data reported and those imputed. The version of the series and its download date must be retained as a revision may change previous values. A rate in an article is not sufficient to reconstruct this traceability.
The estimate of approximately 11% reported by the press for 2025 must thus remain identified as a modeled estimate reported, without becoming here a newly confirmed national rate. Comparing it directly with the 2022 survey would mix different production periods and processes.
Losing a job is not always going to remain unemployed
A survey of individuals previously employed in the private sector can measure the proportion who lost this position. This result provides information on the group studied. It does not automatically provide the unemployment rate for the entire labour force.
After a loss of employment, a person can find another job, work on his own, stop searching or leave the country. These trajectories have different consequences for statistics. The same proportion of redundancies may therefore coexist with different unemployment rates depending on re-employment opportunities and exits.
The desire to emigrate is yet another register. A declared intention is not a departure made. Transforming it into a number of workers already lost would remove the financial, family and administrative constraints that separate the project from its realization.
Observe those who stop searching
A fall in the unemployment rate may be accompanied by an increase in employment, but also by exits from the labour force. To interpret the movement, one must look together at participation, employment, unemployment and underemployment. Income and working hours provide further information on job quality.
This case differs from the question of the diploma adapted to the position: the latter concerns persons already in employment. To follow a repeat, the first test remains the existence of comparable measurements over time. Without them, percentages must illuminate their own objects rather than compose an artificial curve.
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