The French presidential campaign is on the programme ground, without the alliances being stabilized. This Friday, November 6, 2026, La France insoumise publishes a new edition ofFuture in commonon the eve of a gathering of Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the Bourget. To the right and centre, the proposal of a primary is opposed to candidates already engaged. On the left, parliamentary support redistributes, while environmentalists still reserve their December collective decision.
This first weekly dossier distinguishes the announced applications, the still conditional intentions, the available programmatic texts and the statements of the week. It also presents surveys of voting intentions with their assumptions and limitations. At several months of voting, neither a partisan nomination nor an advance in a poll constitute an acquired electoral qualification.
Political candidatures, not yet the official list
Both rounds are scheduled for April 18 and May 2, 2027. The official list of candidates should not be published until 26 March. In particular, applicants must meet the eligibility requirements and have 500 chosen presentations from at least 30 overseas departments or communities, not exceeding 50 presentations for the same territory. The closing date for sponsorships is 12 March.
In the main political families examined here, the campaigns of Marine Le Pen, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau and David Lisnard are engaged. Fabien Roussel was officially appointed by the PCF on 6 September. Eric Zemmour formalized his application on September 17. Nathalie Arthaud leads the Workers’ Struggle. This submission is not a comprehensive inventory of all individual returns.
Two distinctions are essential. Marine Tondelier, appointed by the ecologists to represent them, remains in the running, but the party still has to arbitrate between a clean candidacy and a rally. Dominique de Villepin confirmed on 3 November his intention to present himself, asking for patience, without turning this intervention into a formal launch of applications. Nor should the assumptions François Hollande or Christine Lagarde mentioned in the political debate be presented as officially declared candidatures.
The primary of the centre and the right remains without common agreement
On November 4, Gabriel Attal defended a primary in early 2027. His argument goes beyond the mere designation of a name: « In the end, to win and above all to govern afterwards, it will require a coalition, a broad gathering, which involves people from a wide variety of backgrounds. He hopes that the participants will refuse the alliances with the National Rally and La France, and that the defeated candidates will not appear separately.
Bruno Retailleau also opened the door to this mechanism. On November 3, he said, « I think as things stand, it will probably take a primary at the beginning of the year. On November 5, he recalled the minimum discipline: « The primary rule is at least that when you lose it, you don’t introduce yourself. »
Édouard Philippe retains a different position. On November 1, he said: « I don’t think this primary will take place. He returned the decisions to February, without announcing a withdrawal. The disagreement therefore concerns both the timetable, the procedure and the authority that could enforce the outcome. As of 6 November, the existence of converging calls is not worth the organisation agreement signed between the training courses concerned.
David Lisnard supported an open democratic confrontation, while maintaining his candidacy and the autonomy of New Energy. His position illustrates an additional difficulty: accepting a common competition does not mean accepting in advance any government coalition. The scope of participants and the scope of a future majority remain two distinct issues.
Another formula circulated on 5 November: a rapprochement from David Lisnard to Raphaël Glucksmann. This orientation was lent to Emmanuel Macron by an interlocutor reporting his reflection to a news agency. It does not constitute a joint public statement or coalition agreement. In particular, it runs counter to Glucksmann’s willingness to break with macroism.
Mélenchon publishes a new version of its program
The programmatic novelty of the week comes from LFI. The fifth edition ofFuture in common, available on November 6, is presented as the program of « New France ». The movement announces 1,069 measures, including 238 new and 118 modified or specified. He said he had collected 24,000 contributions and conducted some 30 hearings of experts, trade unions and associations. These figures describe the process claimed by the organization, not a consultation representative of all voters.
» It is a whole new France that this program proposes to found, » wrote Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the introduction. Among the continued directions are retirement at age 60 and priority given to ecological bifurcation. The project combines the constitutional green rule with the exit from nuclear power. The « New France » formula thus serves as a framework for a political offer that reflects previous commitments while announcing additions.
A thematic dossier already disseminated by the campaign proposes a public banking centre to finance productive and ecological investments. The scheme would mobilize public financial institutions and savings geared towards these objectives. LFI defends democratic governance of this set and presents it as a tool for economic transformation, not just as a one-time help to businesses.
Budget documentation deserves a separate reading. On its campaign site, the team states that the public accounts document sets out the broad guidelines for the year 2027 and does not constitute the full costing of a programme to be deployed over several years. It would therefore be incorrect to present this document as the full financial validation of the 1,069 measures.
The November 7 gathering in the Bourget will allow a public presentation of the programme. At the time of this file, it is an announced event: what will be said about it and any new details cannot be anticipated.
Glucksmann wants to install a separate left of LFI
Raphaël Glucksmann won the Socialist and Democratic Left Primary on 11 October, with about 66% of the vote. This designation gives him a mandate within the scope of this consultation, not a nomination of the whole left. The BIA, the FCP and environmentalists have their own approaches and cannot be deemed to be involved in this election.
The current page of his campaign bears this sentence: « I will be the candidate of the break with macroism. It translates an explicit positioning. It does not amount to giving him a new speech this week: it is the wording published on his website at the time of the audit. It makes any proposal to enlarge a presidential coalition beyond its side particularly sensitive.
The programme work of Place Public is organized around 42 projects in a document presented as an « Act I ». It combines European power, industrial and energy sovereignty, ecological transition and strengthening public services. Health, agriculture, research and democratic institutions have their place. It is a basis for partisan work: the title itself calls for a distinction to be drawn between this document and a definitely agreed presidential programme.
In the face of the social crisis, Glucksmann also presented on 22 October, with socialist leaders and public square, a plan to exit the crisis in ten proposals. The priorities announced are youth, purchasing power, democratic order and the repair of social divides. This initiative is a response to the current situation; It alone does not replace the whole campaign programme.
Environmentalists have a text, but a political arbitration to come
Environmentalists have delayed their final strategic choice until December. A consultation of the members is planned from 10 to 13 December to decide between the maintenance of a separate application and support for another joint application. Marine Tondelier therefore remained a candidate nominated by his party, without all the details of his presence in the first round being locked.
The programme published in July 2026,For ecological prosperityHowever, it is possible to examine specific commitments. In particular, it provides for 500,000 efficient energy renovations per year and support for low-income households not to advance costs. It also proposes 2,000 new health centres by 2030.
On higher education, the text provides for the replacement of Pathup and My Master with another system of guidance and allocation, with greater transparency in the rules. On the institutions, he defended a single presidential septennium and a transformation of the functioning of the executive in a more parliamentary sense.
These proposals must be read at their right level: they are launching a party project, whose translation into a possible common platform will depend on negotiations. An alliance could retain, modify or exclude certain measures. The December decision will therefore focus on an electoral strategy, but will also have programmatic consequences.
PCF maintains Roussel despite parliamentary rallies
On 5 November, nine of the 17 members of the Left Democratic and Republican Group announced their support for Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Among them are four of the eight Communist deputies, as well as five ultramarine elected members. It would be misleading to turn this announcement into a rally of nine Communist deputies or an official withdrawal of Fabien Roussel. A parliamentary group, a party and a presidential candidacy are not interchangeable structures.
The Roussel campaign continues to highlight work, public services, housing, health and education. Its website presents these themes from a perspective of daily life and social security. The presence of old documents on partisan sites does not allow them to be automatically renamed « programme 2027 »: their date and status must remain identifiable.
In a statement of 5 November, the PCF states: « The social movement will not be quelled by repression, but by satisfying the demands. This declaration places purchasing power and social demands at the centre of its response to mobilization. It also shows that the aircraft discussions are parallel to a battle over immediate priorities.
Nathalie Arthaud, for her part, continues a separate campaign, focusing on the interests of workers and collective mobilization. Workers’ struggle defends a communist, revolutionary and internationalist perspective. His November 2 call to strike and demonstrations on November 5 extends this line: the candidacy is presented as a means of bringing these demands, rather than as a substitute for social struggles.
Le Pen structures its campaign and specifies its teams
The National Rally organizes its campaign around Marine Le Pen. On November 5, its campaign manager, Julien Sanchez, announced new thematic responsibilities. Laurent Jacobelli is responsible for heritage and culture, while Alexandre Loubet is responsible for industry and energy. These appointments indicate the construction of a campaign organisation; they are not worth publishing a new complete programme.
The RN website continues to highlight several documents of a different nature: presidential programme of 2022, legislative proposals of 2024, counter-budget and business booklet. The recurring guidelines include the national priority and the reduction of VAT on energy to 5.5%. These known positions should be distinguished from a final platform for 2027.
The economic booklet currently accessible supports, inter alia, the abolition of production taxes such as the business property tax and the social solidarity contribution of companies. It also proposes simplifying mechanisms to support research and innovation. These are party commitments: their announced effects on activity, investment or government revenues cannot be treated as results already observed.
On pensions, Marine Le Pen maintained the prospect of a return to 62 years of age during his intervention before the companies on 27 August. This position differs from that of LFI at age 60. A serious comparison must also look at contribution periods, long careers and funding, rather than reducing the plans proposed at a single age.
His judicial situation remains separate from his campaign. On 7 July, the Court of Appeal sentenced him, in the case of European Parliamentary Assistants, to 45 months of ineligibility, of which 30 were suspended, the 15 months being deemed to have already been executed. An appeal remains pending. Its effect on ineligibility at first instance is the subject of divergent analyses: Attorney General Rémy Heitz considers that no ineligibility is currently enforceable; Honorary magistrate Didier Guérin supports the opposite interpretation. It would therefore be imprudent to turn this controversy into definitive legal certainty. The Court of Cassation announced the consideration of priority constitutional issues on 16 December.
Jordan Bardella retains a central role in the RN, but his visibility is not enough to present him as the official candidate for Marine Le Pen. Eric Zemmour is leading a nomination specific to Reconquest. In his speech of 17 September, he proposed, inter alia, that foreigners who had been unemployed for a year should be forced to leave France, including when they were in a regular situation. This proposal for expulsion goes beyond the fight against irregular immigration. It must be attributed to its author, without being assimilated to the law currently applicable or merged with the proposals of the RN.
Attal, Philippe, Retailleau and Lisnard: different offers
Gabriel Attal displays 96 measures and four major projects: school, wages, borders and artificial intelligence. Its site offers, among other things, the replacement of absent teachers, a stable ten-year economic and tax framework, a card for single-parent families and a stable electricity price over five years. It also highlights an annual referendum.
This juxtaposition of social, educational and economic measures forms a separate offer from the primary proposal alone. It raises several questions of implementation: what legislation would be needed, what funding would be mobilized and what powers would be directly vested in the State? The announcement of a measure does not automatically answer these three questions.
In particular, Édouard Philippe detailed a plan of thirteen measures against drug trafficking. It proposes a « narco state of emergency » limited in time and space, as well as strengthened administrative and financial instruments. The project includes a « financial fact sheet » targeting convicted traffickers and a strengthening of maritime action in the West Indies. These measures initiate a debate on the effectiveness of law enforcement and the supervision of public authorities.
Bruno Retailleau gave a central place to a constitutional review. On 2 September, he said: « The revision of the Constitution is the mother of all battles. His project combines a revision and a Republican charter, with a referendum envisaged in autumn 2027. It wishes to broaden the use of referendums and to overcome, in some forms, censorship by the Constitutional Council.
David Lisnard is developing a liberal offer based on strengthening regal missions, reducing bureaucracy and academic excellence. New Energy affirms the autonomy of this application. The existence of common themes with LR or Horizons therefore does not eliminate differences in doctrine or disagreements over alliances.
Social mobilization goes through campaign speeches
The political week is not just about the discussions on nominations. The day of 5 November had been called by an inter-union meeting comprising the CFDT, the CGT, FO, L-Unsa and the FSU, around wages, public services, employment and industry. In particular, organisations denounce the loss of purchasing power and call for a different budgetary stance. This mobilization and tensions in schools oblige the suitors to clarify their reading of the crisis. The answers range from support for demands and strike to insistence on public order, with intermediate positions on how to hear youth.
On November 1, Édouard Philippe described some of the youth’s requests as « in many ways well founded. » On November 4, Gabriel Attal declared: « I do not sort the French. The calls of the PCF and the Workers’ Struggle to respond to social demands are placed in another register, that of the mobilization and transformation of the balance of power.
These declarations do not measure the accession of the whole population. A protestor’s testimony, a reaction on a social network or a crowd at a meeting informs about a particular experience or mobilization. None of these elements can be presented, in isolation, as the voice of the French. Opinion surveys provide further insights, provided that they specify the question, the population questioned and the method.
Two surveys of voting intentions, two configurations
Ifop for LCI, field from 27 to 29 October.The online survey covers 1,650 adults, of whom 1,501 are registered. Sex, age and occupation quotas, territorial stratification and political adjustments are applied. If Attal, Philippe, Retailleau and Lisnard all compete, the published intentions are: Marine Le Pen 35%, Jean-Luc Mélenchon 18%, Raphaël Glucksmann 10%, Édouard Philippe 9.5%, David Lisnard 7%, Gabriel Attal 5%, Éric Zemmour 4.5%, Bruno Retailleau 4%, Marine Tondelier 3%, Fabien Roussel 2%, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 1.5% and Nathalie Arthaud 0.5%.
This configuration is based on 956 registered voters and expressing a choice, not the 1,650 initial adults. The scores are rounded to half point. The notice gives an indicative margin of ± 3.1 points for a score of 50% out of 1,000 respondents. This reference does not constitute an identical margin for each candidate.
Cluster17 for Politico, field from 19 to 22 October.This online survey questions 3,000 people, of whom 2,817 are registered. It employs socio-demographic and regional quotas, political adjustments and weighting according to the probability of voting. In its first scenario, without Attal or Lisnard, the intentions are: Marine Le Pen 33%, Jean-Luc Mélenchon 18.5%, Édouard Philippe 16%, Raphaël Glucksmann 13%, Bruno Retailleau 8%, Éric Zemmour 4%, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 3%, Marine Tondelier 2%, Fabien Roussel 2% and Nathalie Arthaud 0.5%.
For this hypothesis, 2,523 people express a choice; 1 920. The uncertainty table published by the Institute shows margins for this base ranging in particular from ± 1 point for a score of 5% to ± 2.2 points for a score of 50%. These are declared intentions, not election results.
An application for primary education which does not amount to a vote
An Odoxa survey conducted with Backbone for Le Figaro, published on 5 November, addresses another issue. She indicated that 60 per cent of respondents wanted a right and centre primary, a figure which reached 74 per cent among the supporters of these political families. This support of a selection procedure does not allow to deduce the score of its eventual winner in the presidential.
The site was made by internet on 4 and 5 November with 1,005 adults. The quotas relate to sex, age, diploma and occupation, after stratification by region and category of agglomeration. For 60% and a base close to 1,000 people, the table provided shows uncertainty of the order of ± 3 points. The uncertainty is greater for subgroups of sympathizers, fewer than the total sample.
This distinction counts: wishing a primary, preferring a personality to participate, appreciating its image and declaring that they want to vote for it are four different answers. They should not be grouped in a single classification which would erase the questions asked.
Why these figures do not predict April
The two scenarios of voting intentions detailed above are not a directly comparable series. The list of candidates differs, as do the field dates and the salaries of the participation. Thus, the difference between Edward Philippe’s scores in these two surveys cannot be described as a progression or fall measured under identical conditions.
Nor can we add together the intentions of several candidates to announce the score of a joint application. A party may refer, abstain or choose another side. A coalition changes the political offer and can shift preferences in several directions.
Statistical margins also remain limited. They do not summarize all the possible biases of a survey: recruiting respondents, remembering the past vote, formulating questions or difference between declared participation and actual participation. A small gap alone is not enough to demonstrate a dynamic.
Finally, the two grounds for voting ended before the mobilisation of November 5 and before the release of the new BIA program. To attribute an effect of these events would reverse the chronology. They describe an earlier situation, in specific assumptions, without prejudging the behaviour of voters in the spring.
Commitments to follow beyond announcements
The next comparative work will focus on concrete objects: age and retirement conditions, the sharing of financing between taxes and contributions, the cost of energy measures, the necessary staff in public services and the institutional changes envisaged. A large number of proposals alone do not make it possible to judge their consistency or feasibility.
A distinction should also be made between new expenditure, redeployments and announced savings. The growth effects expected by a candidate are assumptions of their program, not guaranteed revenues. A budget path limited to 2027 does not necessarily cover an entire mandate. As a result, arbitration over several years, the timing of application and the legal provisions will be as important as the amounts displayed.
The next milestones already announced are the gathering of Jean-Luc Mélenchon in Bourget on 7 November, and his intervention dedicated to peace in La Souterraine on 11 November. Raphaël Glucksmann announces a Parisian appointment on December 6. The environmentalists’ internal vote from December 10 to 13 must then specify their strategy. In the centre and on the right, calls to a primary remain, on that date, awaiting common rules, an accepted perimeter and a definitely agreed calendar.
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