The US midterms caused a first tremor in the markets and then a rebound in futures contracts. This Wednesday, November 4, 2026, the indications available before Wall Street point towards a positive opening, without guaranteeing it. The dollar is down against the euro. However, investors must distinguish between election results, expectations about Washington and business results.
Pre-opening point prepared on November 4, 2026. Final statement of future entries: 11.14 a.m. UTC, or 6.14 a.m. in New York. The foreign exchange statement is prior and separately identified. These data are not online ratings.
Midterms: a rebound before the American session
The Democrats have won control of both chambers of Congress, according to the results reported this Wednesday. The first reaction, however, did not set the direction for the whole morning. Nasdaq-100 contracts lost up to 2.4% at night, compared to 1.4% for S&P 500 contracts. At 0813 UTC, they had already recovered slightly positive terrain.
The market point published at 1114 UTC then indicates a 1% increase in future S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Dow Jones’s growth is 1.4%. The U.S. 10-year yield was 4.93%. These indications describe instruments negotiated before the regular session, not the opening performance of the spot indices.
| Instrument | Indication | Time frame |
|---|---|---|
| Future S&P 500 | +1 % | 4 November, 11:14 a.m. UTC |
| Future Nasdaq | +1 % | Same dispatch |
| Future Dow Jones | +1.4 % | Same dispatch |
| US debt at 10 years | Performance of 4.93% | Same dispatch |
| EUR/USD in cash | 1 euro = $1,1236; +0.4 % | 4 November, 0823 UTC |
The hours shall indicate the publication of the statements, unless specifically stated otherwise. Variations are those reported by dispatches; they do not measure the movement since the announcement of the results. The figures in the table do not therefore form a simultaneous photograph.
What one can expect from the opening
Wall Street opened its regular meeting at 9.30 a.m. in New York, at 2.30 p.m. UTC and 4.30 p.m. in Beirut. If futures retain their gains until then, an upturn is the scenario consistent with these indications. The exact percentage increase in the indices would, however, be an unsecured forecast.
The distinction counts after a night of reversal. A futures contract reflects the prices that stakeholders agree to negotiate at a given time. The opening of shares is then the result of specific orders for each title. A progression of futures therefore does not mean that all values will rise or that the session will end in the green.
The reading should cover several aspects: the direction of the major indices, the participation of sectors and the evolution of rates. A rebound concentrated on some large capitalisations will have a different scope from a widely shared increase. The first exchanges will also check whether pre-session purchases are resistant to the arrival of volumes from the regular market.
The dollar drops, the euro gains ground
In the foreign exchange market, the point published at 8:23 a.m. UTC places the euro at $1,1236, up 0.4 per cent. The dollar index is 101.41. The 10-year yield then fell by almost three basis points to 4.921%. This sequence therefore combines appreciation of the euro and decline in US yields.
The EUR/USD quotation is the number of dollars needed to buy a euro. When it rises, the euro becomes stronger and the dollar weakens in this relationship. At 1,1236, one dollar represents about 0.8900 euro. This inverse calculation helps to understand the movement, but does not correspond to a bank or exchange rate.
A purely arithmetical example: an unchanged bill of 1,000 euros represents $1,123.60 at this course. For a buyer with dollars, a further EUR/USD increase would increase its cost. For a person with euros and paying a fixed price in dollars, on the contrary, it would reduce the expenditure in euros, excluding costs.
This mechanism also applies to Lebanese households and businesses that receive dollars but pay certain expenses in euros. It does not immediately predict prices in stores. Contracts, stocks, margins and conversion costs change the timing and extent of transmission.
Rates and technology complicate policy reading
Investors first feared a stricter parliamentary control of artificial intelligence. But this fear represents an anticipation, not a regulation that has already come into force. The electoral result is therefore not sufficient to establish a future decline in the sector’s profits.
The new Congress will exercise its powers from January 2027. A parliamentary majority opposed to the President may complicate further tax reductions or additional expenses. This perspective can influence expectations of deficits and bond issues. However, it does not remove any existing measures on its own. Donald Trump will retain his veto power; Overcoming requires a two-thirds majority in each room. Markets therefore evaluate a balance of power, not an economic programme already voted.
News from companies brings another engine. In the 11.14 a.m. UTC survey, Arista Networks earned 11.4 per cent before the meeting, after its results and prospects. The VanEck Semiconductor listed fund grew by 1.6%. These movements show why assigning any variation in Nasdaq to midterms would be excessive: financial publications and political debate overlap.
The obligations give a separate signal. When purchases raise the price of a fixed-rate security, its return decreases. This relationship explains how U.S. debt can progress as its return declines. A three-basis drop means 0.03 percentage points, not a 3% drop in the rate.
Lower returns can reduce the relative attractiveness of a dollar investment, all other things being equal. But the exchange rate also depends on the European outlook and the comparison between monetary policies. The Federal Reserve does not set a price target for the dollar. The foreign exchange market determines its value.
The euro does not receive any guarantee of lasting increase
The movement observed on Wednesday is not an acquired trajectory for the coming weeks. Changes in expectations of interest rates, growth or inflation may change foreign exchange demand. Oil and geopolitical risks also remain likely to change trade-offs. Midterms add information to this set; They’re not replacing him.
For European importers, a stronger euro can reduce the cost of products invoiced in dollars. For some exporters, it can make prices less competitive or reduce revenues converted into euros. The effect on consumer prices remains partial and staggered. A change in currency does not fully pass on to invoices the following day.
The next concrete test arrives at 2:30 p.m. UTC with the opening of US shares. The publications of the activities of the services then expected can still change rates and currencies. It will then be necessary to compare the prices actually negotiated with the indications of pre-opening, rather than transforming the rebound of futures into already acquired results.
Sources and references
- Libnanews: political consequences of voting
- MT Newswires, November 4 at 11:14 a.m. UTC: Futures, Performance and Business
- Reuters, 4 November: future at 0813 UTC and night losses
- Reuters: EUR/USD, dollar index and bonds
- NYSE: hours of negotiation
- Federal reserve: dollar and monetary policy
- ESA : bond prices and rates
- ECB : exchange at prices
- American National Archives: Constitutional Powers and veto
- Archive photography: Libnanews
Comments