The first figures of the Voter Poll de l’Associated Press describe a discontented electorate: about three-quarters of respondents say they are angry or dissatisfied with the country’s leadership. About six out of ten disapproves of Donald Trump’s presidency and nearly 70 per cent want Congress to exercise more counter-power.
This data, released on Tuesday 3 November during the vote, remains provisional. They measure declared opinions, not stripped votes, and do not allow a parliamentary majority to be granted.
An investigation conducted before and during the election
Voter Poll is produced by SSRS Institute for AP and several American channels. Its method provides for interviews from 19 October to 3 November, via internet, telephone and at the exit of certain polling stations. The scheme covers the fifty states, but not Washington, DC.
The study combines several methods of recruitment, some of which are not based on a probabilistic drawing. The responses are weighted to represent the estimated electorate. This weighting must then be adjusted to the results recorded in each State.
Data still likely to change
The programme provides for a total of about 100,000 interviews. This figure is a collection target, not the confirmed strength of the first data released on Tuesday. The initial percentages should therefore not be presented as the already agreed responses of 100,000 voters.
The sample size, its composition and statistical adjustments are included in the interpretation of the figures. The subgroups are more uncertain than the national group. The wording of the questions and those who agree or refuse to respond may also influence an investigation.
The counting of ballots remains necessary to determine the choice of voters in each electoral district and state. The dissatisfaction expressed in a questionnaire does not automatically turn into seats won by a party.
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