The Lebanese private sector lost the momentum observed during the summer in October. The BLOM Lebanon PMI stood at 49.8, compared to 50.5 in September, according to the report released on November 4, 2026 by BLOM Bank and S&P Global. This return below the threshold of 50 reflects a slight deterioration in working conditions, the first since May.
Demand weakens, employment stabilizes
The companies surveyed reported a decrease in new orders and a sharper decline in those from abroad. These include the limited purchasing power of customers and regional uncertainty. Activity is slowing down while stocks are reduced and supply times are increasing.
The report also provides a nuance: the numbers remain stable. Cost and selling price increases continue, but their pace is slowing. Confidence in 12-month activity is deteriorating, with fear of worsening conflicts. These results describe moderate weakening, not widespread collapse.
A turnaround after four months of improvement
The point of comparison is important. In its publication of 5 October, BLOMINVEST noted that September was the fourth consecutive month of expansion. The index then rose from 50.1 in August to 50.5, with an improvement mainly brought about by the internal market. Foreign sales were already under pressure.
The recent sequence thus reads as follows: a limited progression in August, a slight strengthening in September, and a return below the stability threshold in October. The difference between September and October is 0.7 index point. It does not correspond to a 0.7% decrease in production or turnover.
What the IMP measures
The IMP is an indicator derived from monthly surveys of business leaders. It collects their replies on the evolution of the conditions of activity compared with the previous month. According to the S&P Global methodology, 50 marks the absence of change; a higher result indicates an improvement and a lower result a deterioration.
This barometer quickly detects a change of trend, before publication of many economic statistics. However, it does not measure the country’s level of wealth or directly the change in its gross domestic product. A reading close to 50 therefore requires a measured interpretation, not a mechanical conversion to growth rates.
For companies, the October signal calls mainly for monitoring future orders. Employment stabilization may coexist with less robust demand, as hiring and investment decisions do not all respond at the same pace. The next surveys will examine whether this passage under 50 remains punctual or is part of a more sustainable degradation.
Sources
- BLOM Bank / S&P Global, PMI Report October 2026, published November 4.
- BLOMINVEST, September 2026 results, published on October 5.
- S&P Global, IMP presentation and methodology.
Illustration: Hamra Street shops in Beirut. Photo archive published in August 2020; it does not represent the situation of the shops in October 2026. François el Bacha / Libnanews, all rights reserved.
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