Economic growth in France would resume moderately in the fourth quarter of 2026, according to the Bank of France in its survey published on Monday 9 November. This scenario would rule out a second consecutive quarter of contraction. However, the institution does not give precise rates and highlights the high uncertainty surrounding this forecast.
Economic growth in France: an uneven start
Companies anticipate an industrial acceleration in November, slower growth in services and near-stability of the building. In October, aeronautics and defence and data centre activities supported production. The automobile remains in difficulty.
The responses also indicate liquidity pressures. Political, budgetary and social uncertainties, as well as more expensive fuels, delay certain projects and decisions.
The survey is based on approximately 8,500 enterprises or establishments surveyed between 28 October and 4 November. It distinguishes their assessment from the previous month from their expectations for the following month.
These responses are not a comprehensive survey of domestic production. Opinion balances measure the balance between favourable and unfavourable assessments and are subject to seasonal weights and adjustments. Thus, an increase in these indicators does not correspond directly to a percentage of GDP growth.
A rebound expected after the fall in the third quarter
The starting point remains fragile. According to INSEE’s first estimate, published on 30 October, GDP fell by 0.1% between July and September. He stagnated in the second quarter, after a 0.2% decline in the first.
| Indicator in the third quarter 2026 | Quarterly change |
|---|---|
| GDP | -0.1 per cent |
| Household consumption | +0.4 % |
| Total investment | -0.6 per cent |
| Exports | -1.7 per cent |
These INSEE data are seasonally and working day adjusted. Consumption increased, but investment fell further. External trade has withdrawn 0.6 percentage points from quarterly growth.
The usual concept of technical recession refers to two successive quarters of GDP decline. Positive growth at the end of the year would avoid this succession after the summer decline. It remains, at this stage, a forecast and not an observed result.
The Bank of France combines its survey with other indicators to estimate quarterly activity. The next results will be used to determine whether the expected industrial restart is taking place and compensates for the weakness of other sectors.
Picture of illustration: Bank of France building, rue Croix-des-Petits-Champs in Paris, April 21, 2024. Boubloub Archive, via Wikimedia Commons, underCC0 1.0. Whole photo, proportionately resized, with Libnanews dressing.Original photo and credits.
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