De-dolisation depends first on the confidence given to the national currency. A study presented by Al Joumhouria, in its November 2, 2026 edition, compares the trajectories of twelve emerging economies. It examines their bank deposits between 1980 and 2023. Its central point concerns the means employed: developing reliable investments in local currency seems more sustainable than forcing savers.
For Lebanon, this distinction raises a concrete question. How to make the book attractive again for saving and financing? The file does not propose a date of return to the national currency or an immediate measure. It describes the economic and institutional conditions for reducing dependence on currencies. These conditions go far beyond an administrative decision.
De-dolisation in 12 economies
The focus of the work is on dollarization of deposits. This indicator provides information on the place of currencies in the banking system. It also helps to observe the ability of a national currency to retain a saving function. It does not, however, describe in itself all the uses of the dollar in an economy.
Of the 12 countries studied, the authors mention Peru, Poland and Kazakhstan. Their interest in the Lebanese debate lies in the comparative mechanisms, not in a directly transposable forecast.
The file is signed by Salim Shahine, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Lebanon, and Siham Rizkallah, of Saint Joseph University. Jean-François Ponsot, University of Grenoble, and a PhD student from Saint Joseph University also participate in the work. The newspaper refers to a study published in 2026 in a scientific journal of international economics and finance.
The chosen period covers more than four decades. It allows to track dollarization in different economic contexts. The authors distinguish between market-based measures and direct administrative interventions. They also examine the role of programmes supported by the International Monetary Fund.
Propose a credible savings solution
Inflation and exchange rate changes are important factors in choosing a currency. However, according to the study presented by Al Joumhouria, they do not explain the persistence of dollarization alone. The depth of the financial system is also involved. A saver must be able to find local instruments that are considered reliable, accessible and tailored to his or her needs.
The development of a bond market in national currency is thus central to the results presented. Diverse securities, more predictable returns and a sufficiently liquid market offer investment opportunities. The use of the local currency can then progress thanks to an attractive financial offer. It is less based on the ban on keeping currencies.
Market liquidity and transparency are as important as the formal existence of securities. The study also highlights the products offered by banks. Households and businesses must have savings and financing solutions in national currency. Without this offer, a policy of de-dolisation remains without one of its main supporters.
The authors note a more regular relationship between these market mechanisms and the decline in dollarization. They compare them to administrative restrictions, the effects of which vary more. The result does not mean that any local placement becomes safe by definition. It stresses the need to build credible conditions for its use.
Restrictions can act, without sufficient
The study does not reject all administrative measures. Some have an association with a decline in dollarization. The authors cite in particular the increase in minimum reserves on foreign currency loans. They also mention the obligation to use the national currency in domestic transactions.
These effects appear more clearly on long horizons. Financial institutions and depositors may need time to adapt their practices. It would therefore be incorrect to reduce the conclusions to an absolute opposition between efficient and unnecessary regulation. The nature of the instruments, their consistency and duration count.
However, temporarily changing the distribution of deposits does not prove a lasting change in preferences. A constraint can move usages without restoring confidence. The authors recommend that these two situations be distinguished. Their criterion is the strength of the return to the national currency, rather than a one-time decline in foreign currency deposits.
For the Lebanese debate, this distinction limits the scope of a response based solely on legal obligations. A rule may govern a payment or bank transaction. It is not enough to guarantee the preservation of savings. The study’s reasoning therefore leads to a simultaneous examination of institutions, financial products and economic stability.
What IMF programs change in the analysis
Researchers report a strong association between IMF programs and declining dollarization of deposits. This association appears stronger for programmes adopted after a crisis. It is less marked for those pre-crisis.
This association does not mean that a programme automatically produces the same result in each country. The conclusions refer to a set of policies and institutional changes.
The role of the IMF is therefore not limited to the provision of finance. The programmes are accompanied by economic and financial reforms. Their ability to support stability depends in particular on public policies and the institutions responsible for implementing them. Trust in these institutions, in turn, influences the choices of depositors.
The authors stress the correction of imbalances that weaken the demand for national currency. They also retain the credibility of monetary and fiscal policies. Finally, they stress the ability of the authorities to meet their commitments. These conditions give concrete content to the notion of trust, often invoked without precision.
Credibility builds over time
The dossier explicitly links de-dolisation to the credibility of monetary institutions and the independence of their decisions. A national currency does not return to its functions only by amending the texts. The authorities must build a balance sheet of stability and compliance. Savers must be able to see the protection of the purchasing power of their funds.
This requires consistency between fiscal and monetary policies. It also requires more predictability. While the rules and guidelines remain difficult to anticipate, local instruments struggle to inspire confidence. The authors therefore associate stability with the transparency and accountability of the institutions.
The issue is not limited to the individual choice between two currencies. Sustainable dollarization can also limit the effectiveness of monetary policy. According to the published analysis, it becomes a structural obstacle to the action of the authorities. Treating only its manifestations may leave intact the causes that maintain it.
For Lebanon, conditions rather than a timetable
Al Joumhouria’s proposals define several related projects. The first concerns an overall economic and financial strategy. The second concerns local markets capable of offering investments and financing. Supervisory measures complement each other, with specific objectives and coherence with other policies.
The dossier also recommends that the results be judged on their duration. A temporary decrease in the share of foreign currency deposits is not enough. It is necessary to examine whether the national currency is actually returning to its functions. It must also be checked whether households and businesses choose it for sustainable economic reasons.
Applied in Lebanon, this framework opens up a review of savings guarantees, available instruments and institutional commitments. It does not allow to announce an upcoming return to the book. The results must be observable by depositors: reliable investments, accessible financing and protection of their savings.
Sources
Al Joumhouria, November 2, 2026, pages 6–7.
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