The US Congress will be at the heart of the mid-term election on November 3, 2026. A democratic majority in a single chamber could slow Donald Trump down and open new investigations. But it could neither govern alone nor automatically terminate its presidency.
In Washington, Tuesday’s vote will determine much more than the political colour of the Capitol. He will set out the parliamentary means that Donald Trump will have during the last two years of his mandate. On November 2nd, there is still no result to be found between republican continuity and divided government.
Voters renew the 435 seats in the House of Representatives, whose terms last two years. In the Senate, only part of the seats are at stake. The upper chamber currently has 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and two independents. The latter sit with the Democrats for the organisation of work.
US Congress does not elect a new president
Midterms are not a new presidential election. A defeat of the ruling party would therefore not bring down the government, unlike some parliamentary regimes. Donald Trump would retain his executive functions and prerogatives.
However, change could be profound. The House and Senate must adopt the same text for it to be forwarded to the Speaker. A majority of the opposition in a single assembly could thus prevent the adoption of a reform which it rejects. It would have a blocking power, not a mandate to impose its programme alone.
If the Republicans retained both chambers, Trump would retain institutional partners for his projects. This would neither remove disagreements between his party’s elected officials nor the rules of procedure. The number of seats would therefore count as much as the winner’s label.
In the House, investigate and negotiate appropriations
An alternation would first change the direction of the commissions and their priorities. A democratic majority could hold hearings and further examine the decisions of the administration. Commissions have, within their competence, the means to request documents and compel witnesses to appear.
However, these powers do not guarantee immediate access to all information. The executive may object, in particular to executive privilege. Disputes over documents or testimony may result in litigation. Parliamentary scrutiny can therefore produce revelations without leading quickly to a sanction.
Federal appropriations are another lever. Congress authorizes spending by law. An opposition-controlled chamber could claim changes or conditions in the budget negotiations. But a compromise would remain necessary with the other assembly and the White House. Denying appropriations does not mean having the budget alone.
In the Senate, the lockdown of appointments
The upper chamber intervenes in the confirmation of federal judges, ambassadors and many administrative officials. A democratic majority could refuse some candidates or slow down their examination. However, she would not choose the replacements: the initiative of the appointments was the responsibility of the President.
This is a major difference between the two elections. A limited democratic victory in the House would strengthen investigations and legislative blockage. It would not transfer to this assembly the authority to confirm appointments. If the two chambers were to turn, the Democrats would bring these levers together, without regaining the presidential powers.
In the Senate, a narrow majority is not always enough to advance a law. Closing the debate usually requires three-fifths of the senators in office, or 60 votes when the 100 seats are filled. Some budgetary procedures escape this obstacle. Appointments also follow separate rules.
The veto would remain in Trump’s hands
Even if voted by both chambers, a text could run into the presidential veto. In order to avoid this, each party should have two thirds of the votes cast, with the required quorum. A simple alternation of Parliament would therefore not be enough to reverse the White House’s choices.
The removal is a matter of another procedure, which is also demanding. The Chamber may charge a President. The Senate then judges this charge and can only pass a conviction with two thirds of the senators present. An election victory of the opposition would not automatically meet these conditions.
Finally, the new mandates will begin on 3 January 2027. The outgoing elected representatives will retain their responsibilities between the election and this deadline. The results of 3 November will therefore determine the next balance of power, without changing the composition of the Congress the next day.
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