Payment companies recorded $2.5 billion in cross-border inflows in 2025, while the balance of payments recorded 4.8 billion in nine-month shipments of workers. These figures from the Bank of Lebanon do not contradict each other: they do not cover the same operations or the same period. Adding them would artificially inflate the resources received.
Foreign transfers to Lebanon appear in several statistics. Some follow the activity of a payment network. Others classify transactions according to their economic nature. The BDL macroeconomic review of December 2025, released in April 2026, makes it possible to distinguish these readings. His data describe 2025, not transfers made in autumn 2026.
Transfers outside Lebanon: a channel is not a national total
The first series covers electronic cash transfer transactions, referred to as CET. It covers electronic payment service providers monitored by the BDL. Cross-border inflows increased from about $2.8 billion in 2024 to $2.5 billion in 2025. The central bank is down 11.6% from unrounded data.
This amount is not entirely made up of sending workers. These represent 63.1% of the admissions to the circuit in 2025, compared with 70% in 2024. The rest belongs to other categories of transactions. Assimilating every dollar transferred by a claimant to a diaspora family worker would therefore confuse the means of payment with the reason for payment.
In parallel, CET outputs increased from $475 million to $501 million. The « worker dispatch » component accounted for 68.9% of those outflows in 2025. All grounds combined, the cross-border balance of the circuit reached about 2 billion. The balance of the only shipments of workers in the same circuit stood at 1.2 billion, compared with 1.6 billion in 2024.
| CET operations followed by BDL | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Cross-border entries, all reasons | About $2.8 billion | About 2.5 billion |
| Cross-border exits, all reasons | $475 million | 501 million |
| Balance of workers only | About $1.6 billion | About 1.2 billion |
| Domestic operations received and delivered | About $2.7 billion | About 2.2 billion |
The last line does not measure foreign currency. It describes domestic operations. A payment between two residents can mobilise a provider without constituting an external contribution to the economy. It should not be added to cross-border entries to calculate resources sent from abroad.
Balance of payments measures another category
In the section on external accounts, the BDL lists workers’ shipments over the first nine months of 2025. Inputs reached about $4.8 billion, compared to $5 billion a year earlier. Outputs amounted to 1.4 billion. The balance stood at 3.4 billion, compared with 3.7 billion in the same period of 2024.
This item is not limited to the TEC scope in the claimant chapter. It is part of a national economic account. The difference between 4.8 billion and 2.5 billion cannot therefore be interpreted as missing, hidden or exclusively transported money in cash. The periods also differ: nine months in the first case, twelve in the second.
Calculating a « market share » of claimants by dividing these two amounts would be equally misleading. The numerator would include operations of a different nature and a longer period. A valid comparison would require the same dates, categories and precise documentation of channels already included in the national total.
The definition also changes international comparisons
The World Bank defines personal transfers between resident and non-resident households regardless of the family link or source of income sent. Its personal mail indicator adds a compensation component of employees. It is therefore broader than some old series entitled « worker shipments ».
Economic residence here counts more than nationality. The word « diaspora », useful in common language, does not replace the statistical definition. Comparing an international indicator to a BDL line requires checking the components, instead of assuming that two close headings refer to exactly the same flows.
Gross entries and net balance also answer different questions. The former measure the amounts received within the chosen perimeter. The second removes the amounts sent. The 3.4 billion net balance of payments is not an additional revenue to be added to 4.8 billion inflows.
An observed decrease does not yet give its cause
Both sets show a decline over their respective periods. This is not enough to measure a uniform decrease in the amount of assistance received by each family. The statistics presented do not give the number of households in receipt, the distribution of amounts or channel changes for the same sender.
One household may receive less, another may receive more. A transfer may change its intermediary without its beneficiary changing. These possibilities illustrate the missing information; they are not evidence of the 2025 decline. Frequency, average amount and source data would be required to separate them.
The next relevant statement should therefore specify simultaneously the period, the operations covered and the gross or net nature of the amount. The BDL indicates that its balance of payments figures are being revised. This reserve must remain attached to the 2025 data, even when they are used to understand the sustainable role of transfers in the Lebanese economy.
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