Lebanese exports of services fell by 24.2% in volume in 2024, according to the revised accounts of the Central Statistical Office (CAS). The decline in GDP fell by about 3.6 percentage points. This is more than the negative contribution of exports of goods, estimated at 0.8 points. The external decline of the year is therefore not limited to goods crossing customs.
Exported services reached 296 159 billion daily pounds in 2024, compared to 336 838 billion in 2023. The nominal decrease is 12.1 per cent. It is less than the volume decrease, as the deflator for these exports increases by 16.0%. Revenues expressed in current currency thus give only part of the measure of dropout.
Lebanese exports of services: a sharper decline
The CAS distinguishes goods and services from GDP by expenditure. For services, it estimates the amount of 2024 at 2023 to 255,394 billion pounds. The comparison with 2023’s 336 838 billion gives a real decrease of 24.18 per cent, rounded here to 24.2 per cent.
For goods, the amount of 2024 at 2023 prices is £326,908 billion. It was 344,252 billion in 2023. The real decline is therefore 5.0%. Both flows contract, but with very different amplitudes. In total, exports of goods and services decreased by 14.5% in volume.
| Exports | LL 2023 billion | LL 2024 billion | Real change 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goods | 344 252 | 324 086 | -5.0 per cent |
| Services | 336 838 | 296 159 | -24.2 per cent |
| Together | 681 090 | 620 245 | -14.5% |
The figures are for 2024. They do not constitute a record of the tourist season 2026. Their interest is to clarify the origin of the decline in external demand in a year when real GDP fell by 5.2%. The contraction of services sold abroad appears to be a major component of this movement.
Export to Lebanon
A service is exported when a resident producer provides it to a non-resident customer. Therefore, the claimant does not always need to leave the country. A remote computer service may be part of this flow. Non-resident visitor expenditure on goods and services during their stay is also included in external trade, according to balance of payments rules.
International transport, travel and professional services fall into separate categories. Their addition should not be replaced by a single tourist indicator. The number of passengers at an airport does not measure a recipe. The turnover of hotels also includes resident customers and does not correspond to all exports of services.
Economic residence, rather than the nationality of the passport, organizes this distinction. A Lebanese resident abroad may be a non-resident when visiting the country. An alien residing in Lebanon does not automatically become an outside customer. This rule avoids confusing international tourism, diaspora and domestic consumption.
The hotel industry provides an index, not a breakdown
The accounts by branch show a drop of 21% in the value added of hotels and restaurants in 2024. This is consistent with a difficult year for visitor activities. However, it does not make it possible to attribute the total fall in services exported to tourism.
The two tables do not measure the same object. The branch production describes the production of resident establishments, regardless of the origin of their clients. Exports account for sales to non-residents across several branches. Adding these two decreases would amount to counting a part of the activity twice.
The CAS publication does not provide in these tables the breakdown necessary to isolate the respective contribution of travel, transportation and professional services. Such a breakdown requires detailed series of balance of payments and methods of transition compatible with the national accounts.
A level reduced to 41% of that of 2019
The long perspective underscores the extent of the rupture. The volume index for services exports was 41 in 2024, for a base of 100 in 2019. It fell to 43 in 2020, before rising to 54 in 2021 and 59 in 2022. The decline to 54 in 2023, then to 41 in 2024, erased this partial recovery.
Exports of goods follow a less degraded path over this period. Their index reached 83 in 2024, compared to 100 in 2019. Total exports of goods and services are 58. These indices are rounded. They describe the relative levels, while the precise annual rates must be calculated from the tables of comparable values.
In current terms, the share of services in total exports rose from 49.5% in 2023 to 47.7% in 2024. Thus, their decline remains central, although goods now account for slightly more than half of this total.
Imports almost stable in volume
Faced with this contraction in exports, total imports remained virtually stable in volume in 2024. The tables show 1,746,649 billion pounds at 2023 prices, compared with 1,746,485 billion pounds the previous year. Their contribution to growth is rounded to zero.
The deficit in goods and services amounts to 1,158,115 billion current books, or about 42.4% of nominal GDP. This is a balance including services and values derived from national accounts. It should not be treated solely as the customs deficit of the goods or as the total external current account deficit.
The next useful step will be the breakdown of the services exported. It will make it possible to distinguish between visitors, transport or services sold remotely, without assigning to a single sector the results of a much wider aggregate.
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