In January 2022, the educational level of 56.6% of employed persons in Lebanon did not correspond to that required for their position, according to the CAS-ILO survey. This result does not mean that more than half of the workers were overqualified. The gap covered two opposite situations, and was not a test of their skills.
The gap between diploma and employment in Lebanon is often summed up by the word « downgrading ». The January 2022 survey of the Central Statistical Office (CAS) and the International Labour Organization (ILO) called for a more precise reading. It distinguishes between a higher level of education than that required by the position and a lower level.
The total number of persons in employment was 56.6%. But the first situation was 18.3 per cent of this group, compared with 38.3 per cent for the second. Presenting the total as an overqualification rate would therefore reverse the meaning of the result.
These observations concern January 2022. Their interest is to clarify what the indicator measures and what it leaves behind. They do not make it possible to announce the current level of graduation of graduates in 2026.
Diploma and employment: two forms of gap
The inadequacy by level of education arises when the person’s training does not correspond to the level required for his employment. A higher level describes overeducation in the statistical sense. A lower level describes undereducation in relation to the position. These terms compare two levels; they do not make a global judgment on the worker.
The report also distinguishes the inadequacy by field of study. A person may possess the expected degree level, but in a different specialty. On the other hand, she can work in her field with a degree at a level below or above the benchmark.
Both dimensions are not interchangeable. The figure of 56.6% relates to the difference by level of education. It should not be used to quantify the number of people who have changed their specialty. An analysis of the fields of study should use tables specific to the field of training.
The trade is itself distinguished from the employer sector. An accountant in an industrial enterprise carries out an accounting activity within the industry. The classification of his profession and that of his employer provide two different information. This distinction is important when looking where diplomas are used.
Total increase was mainly from the lower level
Between 2018–2019 and January 2022, the proportion of people in employment with a level difference increased from 50% to 56.6%. However, overeducation fell from 24% to 18.3%. Undereducation compared to the position increased from 26% to 38.3%.
| Education level relative to position | 2018–2019 | January 2022 |
|---|---|---|
| Higher than required | 24.0% | 18.3% |
| Lower than required | 26.0% | 38.3% |
| All two variances | 50.0% | 56,6 % |
The denominator is the employed population, not all graduates or all persons of working age. An unemployed graduate does not enter into the calculation of the inadequacy of his job because he does not hold a position. This exclusion is decisive in a period of job destruction.
The decline in overeducation therefore does not show that graduates have all found a better job. Some may have left the job. Others may have changed jobs. A change in the proportion may also arise from a shift in the composition of the persons still employed.
The report suggests that overeducated people may have lost their jobs relatively more than those classified as undereducated. This interpretation remains an explanation of the change observed. It does not trace the individual trajectory of each graduate between the two surveys.
A qualification is not the whole competence
The diploma represents a formal qualification. Skills also include what a person actually knows. Experience, work-based learning and further training can enrich these capacities without immediately changing the level of the diploma held.
A person who is under-educated from the position may have gained useful experience. The picture does not prove that she is doing her job badly. On the other hand, having a higher degree than the job benchmark does not guarantee mastery of all the tasks requested.
Measuring actual skills requires further information. This may be an assessment of tasks, know-how or training needs. A table comparing education levels does not replace this approach. It offers a signal on the relationship between formal training and employment.
Salary downgrading is another issue. A job can match the level of training and offer low pay. Another can mobilize fewer formal qualifications and provide higher income. Without comparable wage data, the graduation gap does not measure income loss.
Observe job exits as well as jobs
To track the future of graduates, a comprehensive measure must bring together several sets. It is necessary to examine those who work, those who seek employment and those who withdraw from the labour market. The rate of mismatches among persons employed is not sufficient to describe all these trajectories.
There is also a need to distinguish between changing jobs and changing levels of responsibility. An employee may retain the same specialty with different tasks. Another may be employed in a new field. Both situations require more detailed information than the only highest degree.
The 2022 survey covers 5,444 households and residents of ordinary housing. Those who have left the country are not a group that can be monitored directly by this rate. It would therefore be unfounded to deduct, on its own, a number of graduates who had emigrated.
A new investigation could determine whether the variances have changed since January 2022. In order to inform training choices, it should retain the distinction between level and field of study and then bring it closer to accessible jobs. The skills actually mobilized and the revenues would require their own observations.
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