The war could deprive the six Gulf Cooperation Council economies of $790 billion in cumulative production between 2026 and 2030, according to an Allianz Research study published on 9 November. The estimate compares the economic trajectory now anticipated with that expected before the conflict. It therefore does not describe an amount already spent or the only cost of buildings destroyed.
Production losses, not a single invoice
Allianz distinguishes this loss of property damage estimated at just over $200 billion. The two measures do not cover the same object: one concerns the activity that would not be produced, the other concerns damaged assets.
By 2026 economists forecast a 4% contraction in the GCC economy. They anticipate declines of 14 per cent in Qatar and 11 per cent in Kuwait, compared with growth of 3.3 per cent in Oman. Their recovery scenario implies the absence of further major escalation and the gradual normalisation of shipping.
Ormuz does not sum up the whole shock
The diagnosis joins the mechanisms described by the International Monetary Fund on 1 October before the Finance Ministers and Governors of Gulf Central Banks. The IMF had three channels: energy exports hampered by maritime disruption, production capacity reduced by damage to facilities and the slowdown in non-oil activities.
Trade, business confidence and the price of essential goods thus transmit the shock beyond hydrocarbons. According to the Fund, alternative routes have nevertheless maintained supplies and limited global consequences. The recovery remains conditional on the duration, intensity and geographical extent of the conflict.
Different responses by country
The IMF recommends temporary, targeted and transparent support to households and businesses. It also warns against a general recovery when the difficulties come mainly from supply: more demand does not repair a port and can increase pressure on prices.
In the longer term, the institution underlines the importance of stocks, logistical capacity and alternative roads. It distinguishes the financial reserves needed to absorb a shock from the material capacity to maintain trade.
Omani accounts illustrate this diversity of situations without prejudging future results. According to the Ministry of Finance’s bulletin published on November 11, the Sultanate released 90 million rials over nine months, with gas revenues rising by 61%. A positive national budgetary balance can therefore coexist with a projected loss of regional production over several years: periods, countries and indicators are not interchangeable.
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