The price of fuel in Lebanon does not follow mechanically the Brent displayed on the markets. Georges Brax, president of the gas station owners’ union, recalls this distinction in his statements made public on November 14, 2026. The Lebanese table is based, he explains, on the quotations for refined products, to which are added the freight costs and other components of the price. A drop in crude oil is therefore not sufficient to predict the next full oil.
This explanation comes as consumers seek to understand the differences between international and local tariffs. It does not mean that any variation would be justified in principle. To compare the two, the same product, the same period and the same costs must be reconciled. The instantaneous price of a barrel alone does not describe the cost of fuel delivered to Lebanon.
Fuel prices in Lebanon : the product bought counts
Brent refers to a crude oil reference. Gasoline and diesel are refining products for different uses. Brax insists on the prices of these products, followed notably by Platts. It is they that need to be examined to understand the Lebanese market, dependent on fuel imports.
Their prices meet their own availability and demand. The professional manager describes a more sustained demand for diesel as it approaches the winter. He cites heating, energy production and freight transport. Gasoline does not meet exactly the same needs. Both products can therefore evolve differently, even when they come from the same raw material.
Brax estimates that gasoline could further decrease, while diesel would remain under pressure. This is its forecast, not a new official tariff or a guarantee for the coming weeks. Supply conditions and demand may change this path. Presenting a release of crude oil as the promise of an identical drop in all fuels would make this distinction disappear.
Fifteen quotations rather than an instant course
According to Georges Brax, the price composition table is based on the last fifteen quotations of refined products. This reference explains a second deviation: that of time. A large variation observed today does not immediately replace all the values used in the calculation. Previous quotations continue to weigh as long as they belong to the period chosen.
The mechanism described does not authorize the announcement of a fixed period of 15 days. Fifteen price publications and fifteen calendar days are not interchangeable units. Nor does it allow the amount of the next adjustment to be deducted without the values actually deducted. The explanation concerns the logic of the calculation, not a re-enactment of the current table.
In order to assess the transmission of a decline, it is therefore necessary to observe several comparable quotations. A series of declines in the refined product did not have the same effect as a single drop in the crude. Conversely, a one-time rebound of the Brent does not directly calculate the increase in a diesel can. The reference and the observation period must be specified before any comparison.
Freight and insurance supplement the invoice
The international price of the product is not the price of a fuel delivered. Brax recalls the role of maritime transport, insurance and taxes. These items are included in the local bill. An improvement on one of them can be compensated by one tension on another. Without their breakdown, a change in the final amount cannot be entirely attributed to oil.
In particular, the head of service stations highlights Lebanon’s exposure to external disturbances. The country must buy and transport its refined products. Tensions on maritime routes therefore affect a supply chain whose cost exceeds the value of the load. This dependence is distinct from the level of domestic consumption.
A decrease in household purchases thus does not guarantee an equivalent reduction in import costs. Reference prices are formed in much wider markets. Transport and insurance costs also meet their own conditions. The contraction of the local market may coexist with a high unit invoice.
Forecasts remain different from applicable tariff
In his statements of 14 November, Brax advocates diversification of energy sources. He described this as a way to reduce exposure to repeated crises. It also states that importers have maintained stocks to feed the market. This professional assessment is not accompanied by a detailed public inventory to calculate a precise autonomy here.
For the consumer, therefore, three information must remain separate: the price of the crude oil, the quotations of the fuel concerned and the applicable local tariff. The first two help explain an evolution; they do not replace the third. The next price table will show the actual adjustment, without turning an anticipation on gasoline into a commitment on diesel.
Illustration: former petrol pump in Jounieh, archival photograph published in Libnanews Bank in March 2022. It does not show the current state of the stations. © Libnanews.com.
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