Informal economy and GDP are not two completely separate sets in Lebanon. The 2024 accounts of the Central Statistical Office (CAS) include adjustments for informal or difficult-to-record activities. Their order of magnitude reaches about 30% of the recorded production. However, the CAS states that the level of these activities remains uncertain.
This indication corrects a common idea: what escapes direct administrative observation is not necessarily absent from the measured wealth produced. However, it does not provide an accurate estimate of the weight of the informal economy. The denominator quoted, « registered production », must be retained as it stands.
Informal economy and GDP: a correction already included
The box on informal and unregistered activities appears in the CAS report on national accounts of 2024. He indicated that some activities were in the informal sector, while others were difficult to measure regularly or even to measure at all. Adjustments are already included in official estimates to cover their value.
The $30.5 billion GDP published for 2024 is therefore not simply a sum of uncorrected tax returns. Automatically adding 30% to this figure to get a supposed « real GDP » would risk double counting. The correction mentioned already belongs to the measuring device.
The CAS does not present this benchmark as the result of a complete census of informal enterprises. She formulates it as an order of magnitude. The report does not give a breakdown by branch, region, size of enterprise or means of payment.
Why 30% does not mean 30% of GDP
A proportion always depends on its basis. Thirty units added to one hundred registered units represent 30% of the initial base. They account for approximately 23.1% of the total of 130 units. This purely arithmetic example shows why a correction percentage does not read as part of the corrected total.
It cannot be concluded that the informal accounts for 23.1% of Lebanese GDP. The CAS formulation covers registered production, and GDP measures added value. Intermediate consumption, sectoral methods and other adjustments prevent this illustration from being transformed into a national estimate.
| Indication available | Correct reading | Conclusion not established |
|---|---|---|
| Correction of about 30% of recorded production | Activities difficult to observe are taken into account | Informal accounts for exactly 30% of GDP |
| Adjustments already included in the accounts | Official GDP exceeds the only directly recorded measure | A further 30% must be added to the published GDP |
| Level recognized as uncertain | A margin of estimation remains | A comprehensive census established this amount |
Cash is not a statistical definition of informal
A declared company may accept cash payments. A bank payment alone does not prove that any activity or employment concerned is declared. The means of settlement and the economic status of an activity answer different questions.
Nor does dollarization provide a reliable border. A sale paid in dollars can be recorded, while a book business can escape administrative records. The CAS box therefore does not measure the volume of banknotes in circulation or the share of transactions outside banks.
It also does not provide information on the legality of a particular undertaking. Informality, lack of registration, cash payment and criminal activity are not synonymous. Grouping them under a single figure would remove essential distinctions to understand the data.
Informal employment is still another indicator
A proportion of informal jobs measure persons or positions according to employment-related criteria. A share of production measures an economic value. Jobs do not all have the same productivity or working time. A production ratio cannot therefore be replaced by a employment ratio.
Similarly, the number of non-registered enterprises does not make it possible to know directly their contribution to GDP. Very many small activities can produce less added value than a small number of large enterprises. It is necessary to know their production and intermediate consumption, not only to count them.
A limit that requires more precise data
The scope of the box is clear: the national accounts seek to include production that is difficult to observe, while recognizing the uncertainty of its estimate. It does not determine how this share evolved between 2024 and 2026. Nor is it possible to quantify a recoverable tax revenue.
Further work would require a breakdown of adjustments, their updating methodology and recent surveys. This information would allow for a better understanding of the activities concerned without transforming an approximate statistical correction into an exhaustive measure of the hidden economy.
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