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Recession 2026: Why Lebanon will lose -6.4% of GDP
-6.4% expected growth in 2026, after +4.2% in 2025. The war only explains part of the shock.
In this reality: the restrictive monetary policy of the BDL, the collapse of bank credit (only 5.86% of deposits lent to the private sector), the budgetary discipline that does not revive anything, and the increase in VAT + the essence that drives inflation to 17.5%.
Four coherent policies taken separately, which have become highly restrictive together.
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