The Financial Loss Law still does not have a guaranteed voting calendar in Lebanon. Yassine Jaber wants to speed up its review with the Bank of Lebanon, while the 2027 budget mobilises the Finance Committee. The deadlines for completing the text remain forecasts. They do not set out the first day of repayment of the depositors or the sums each may withdraw.
Finance Minister and Governor Karim Souaid have undertaken technical work on the project. This step must specify the provisions that remain to be discussed before their parliamentary review is continued. It deals with a system expected to deal with losses accumulated since the collapse of 2019 and allow banks to resume normal business.
For depositors, the central information therefore concerns the time remaining before them. Government work, discussions with the International Monetary Fund and the Chamber’s procedure do not follow a single deadline. An agreement on a guideline is not worth adopting all the articles. Nor is a passed law proof that the necessary cash is immediately available.
Financial Loss Act: Uncertain maturities
In his recent explanation of the 2027 budget, Yassine Jaber expressed the hope of completing the text before next spring. He planned to resume discussions after the December budget work. Another estimate, in the second half of 2027, is also given in the information published on 4 November. These different indications do not make it possible to announce a fixed date.
Nor is it sufficient to establish that a formal postponement would have been decided. There is no definitive parliamentary voting calendar accompanying these forecasts. The distinction counts for the holders of frozen accounts, to which successive political announcements still do not offer an individual time frame that can be enforced.
The Minister presented the project as a roadmap for treating depositor rights and restoring the operation of the sector. He claims that the extension of the crisis without a solution is no longer acceptable. This position expresses a desire to accelerate. It does not alone resolve the financial disagreements and the institutional steps that make implementation necessary.
Budget 2027 occupies the Finance Committee
The first obstacle to the timetable is the budget discussion. The government and Members of Parliament must review revenues, expenditures and tax provisions for the next fiscal year. The Finance Committee is already working on these chapters. The same officials participate in the banking case, which concentrates several important negotiations in a short period of time.
However, the budget and the Financial Loss Act remain two separate texts. The former organizes government resources and spending authorities. The second must specify the treatment of the financial imbalance and the procedures for returning deposits. A budgetary vote therefore does not automatically regulate the fate of bank accounts.
Trade with the IMF is another time frame. Yassine Jaber indicates that contacts are continuing, particularly on the medium-term financial framework. The discussions announced in November should help bring positions closer together. They do not make it possible to present a final programme as already concluded, nor to transform an agreement perspective into a promise of payment to bank customers.
The end of the year also reduces the number of weeks available for technical and parliamentary meetings. This may affect the pace of work. However, it is not a legal rule requiring several months. Progress will depend mainly on the provisions actually stabilized and the decisions on the agenda.
Points to be specified before repayment
The State’s debt to the Bank of Lebanon is one of the key issues. Its treatment, interest retained and the rate of payments influence the resources that the central bank could mobilize. The Ministry states that the public contribution must respect the capacity of the State to repay and the sustainability of its debt.
This reserve prevents the Treasury from being considered an unlimited source of funding. An obligation recognized in a text and an immediate payment describe two different situations. The timetable will have to remain consistent with government revenues and other government commitments.
The treatment of amounts already paid to depositors also requires clarification. Their possible deduction of a reference amount, the categories of accounts concerned and the calculation rules directly alter what each customer could receive. The $100,000 threshold mentioned in the debate should therefore not be presented as a new withdrawal guaranteed to all.
The reserves and revenues of the Bank of Lebanon pose another question: what assets can actually finance payments, and under what conditions? The existence of an asset on the balance sheet does not prove that it is available in cash. Its mobilisation may depend on legal rules, valuation or decisions that remain to be specified.
What applicants can verify in practice
The first benchmark will be the precise version of the draft considered in Parliament, with its amendments and funding provisions. Then the vote, the implementing rules and the obligations imposed on the institutions will be taken. These steps will make it possible to distinguish between general commitments and actually open rights.
For a customer, useful information will remain very concrete: balance withheld, amounts available, currency of payment, deadlines and consequences of previous withdrawals. Until these parameters are set, a political date announced for 2027 does not allow the calculation of a personal refund. The next measurable progress will therefore be a stable text and explicit funding, rather than a new timetable.
Comments